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Posted by: zanshin,
2008-06-29 03:07 |
Argument
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Temporary Error with Title of Argument
1 empty
Background and Context
The current Bush administration / USA-govt will attack Iran in the remaining months of his presidency.
Desirability: Undesirable
Importance: High
Volatility: High
Likelihood: Medium
Confidence: Medium
Argument Tree
Vieuw in Silverlight
The current Bush administration will attack Iran -- CLOSED on 2009-01-20
President Bush intends to attack Iran in the remaining months of his presidency
>>Bush will attack Iran if Obama might be elected: Kristol
President Bush is more likely to attack Iran if he believes Sen. Barack Obama (D-IL) is going to be elected.
-- Bill Kristol, Weekly Standard editor, on Fox News Sunday
>>If Barack Obama wins, his public commitment to intensified diplomacy with Iran would mean any chance of stopping the nuclear programme would be lost.
>>Currently President Bush is exerting all his power and influence to repeatedly urge Europe, Israel and others to support an attack on
>>US is strengthening its longstanding security commitments with its friends in the Gulf: Bush
"The United States is strengthening our longstanding security commitments with our friends in the Gulf -- and rallying friends around the world to confront this danger before it is too late.
[... Iran] seeks to intimidate its neighbours with missiles and bellicose rhetoric. Iran's actions threaten the security of nations everywhere."
-- US President George W. Bush, in UAE capital Abu Dhabi in the keynote speech of his Middle East tour
>>Impeachment will prevent Bush from attacking Iran
Impeachment will prevent Bush (/ USA)from attacking Iran.
>>“Our concerns in this area have been heightened by more recent events.”
[ ... ]
“The resignation in mid-March of Admiral William J. ‘Fox’ Fallon from the head of U.S. Central Command, which was reportedly linked to a magazine article that portrayed him as the only person who might stop your Administration from waging preemptive war against Iran, has renewed widespread concerns that your Administration is unilaterally planning for military action against that country. This is despite the fact that the December 2007 National Intelligence Estimate concluded that Iran had halted its nuclear weapons program in the fall of 2003, a stark reversal of previous Administration assessments.”
-- John Conyers, USA House Judiciary Chairman, in a letter to President Bush, threatened to open impeachment proceedings if Bush attacked Iran.
nb. The letter is a signal that planning for strikes on Iran is under way and pronounced.
>>Bush does not want to be impeached (over Iran)
>>Bush knows / believes that if he goes into Iran he will be impeached.
>>If Bush goes into Iran he should be impeached: Conyers
If Bush goes into Iran he should be impeached, many members of Congress have signed their names to a letter warning Bush not to invade Iran.
-- According to John Conyers, D-Mich. and chair of the House Judiciary Committee, at a gathering of liberal activists in Washington
>>Bush will impeached anyway
If not for the elections than after the elections
>>"We can win this election and go get these guys afterwards. But we just don't want to jeopardize November 4th."
-- According to John Conyers, D-Mich. and chair of the House Judiciary Committee, at a gathering of liberal activists in Washington, talking to Cybercast News Service
>>Israel is pushing Bush into a pre-emptive war with Iran
>>In the USA, US Congress alone has the power to authorize war.
>>USA will attack Iran if Iran continues with the enrichment of uranium
>>United States won't tolerate Iran having a nuclear weapon
>>"I believe that the Iranian -- if Iran had a nuclear weapon, it would be a dangerous threat to world peace.
[ ... ]
So I've told people that if you're interested in avoiding World War III, it seems like you ought to be interested in preventing them from have the knowledge necessary to make a nuclear weapon. I take the threat of Iran with a nuclear weapon very seriously."
-- George W. Bush, Press Conference by the President
>>USA will back the security of Israel
USA will back the security of Israel
>>USA will back the security of Israel: Cheney
U.S. Vice-President Cheney during a regional tour of the Middle East, “We must not, and will not, ignore the darkening shadows of the situations in Gaza, in Lebanon, in Syria and in Iran and the forces there that are working to derail the hopes of the world,” Vice-President Cheney vowed dramatically in a insinuation that conflict was brewing and the U.S. was prepared to aid Israel.
-- According to British Broadcasting Corporation News (BBC News) in article, Cheney backs Israel over security
>>“We reached agreement on the need to take care of the Iranian threat. I left with a lot less question marks [than] I had entered with regarding the means, the timetable restrictions, and American resoluteness to deal with the problem. George Bush understands the severity of the Iranian threat and the need to vanquish it, and intends to act on that matter before the end of his term in the White House.”
Ehud Olmert, Israeli Prime Minister, emerging from a 90-minute White House meeting with President George W. Bush
>>Iran is building nuclear weapons
Iran is working on a military nuclear program to develop nuclear weapons.
>>See corresponding sub-map
>>USA will attack Iran if a high-casualty attack on US forces in neighbouring Iraq were traced directly back to Iran.
>>The USA will attack Iran [= start a war with Iran] through starting a naval blockade
>>The USA will implement a naval blockade of Iran
>>In the USA house draft resolution number 362 is tabled.
So far, it has attracted the co-sponsorship of nearly half of the 430-member House of Representatives.
The draft resolution calls on the President to stop all shipments of refined petroleum products from reaching Iran. It also "demands" that the President impose "stringent inspection requirements on all persons, vehicles, ships, planes, trains and cargo entering or departing Iran".
>>"If the US wants to implement the (draft) resolution, it would have to go for naval blockade.
[ ... ]
And the naval blockade, according to the International Law, is an act of war. So, it is a way to start a war without doing it with missiles and other means the American public are sensitive to.
-- Tripta Parsi, head of the Washington-based National Iranian American Council, in an interview with Gulf News in reference to the tabled US House draft resolution number 362
>>In the USA, a draft resolution number 580 has been proposed and attracted 50 cosponsors in the 100-member Senate.
This draft is a 'sister' draft of US House draft resolution number 362
>>A naval blockade is an act of war.
-- According to International Law
>>If Israel attacks Iran, USA will attack Iran
>>Israel will attack Iran
>>United States is working towards regime change in Iran
>>The Pentagon is planning to deliver a massive air strike on Iran's military infrastructure in the near future.
-- According to former Col.-Gen. Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Academy of Geopolitical Sciences
>>“I have no doubt that there will be an operation, or more precisely a violent action against Iran.”
-- retired Colonel General Leonid Ivashov, vice president of the Moscow Academy for Geopolitical Sciences
>>In the overall flow of information coming from the Middle East, there are increasingly frequent reports indicating that within several months from now the US will deliver nuclear strikes on Iran.
-- Leonid Ivashov, vice-president of the Academy on geopolitical affairs, in his article
>>Georgia would be an ideal bridgehead for a U.S. invasion of Iran
Russian intelligence had obtained information indicating that the Georgian military infrastructure could be used for logistical support of U.S. troops if they launched an attack on Iran.
-- Dmitry Rogozin, Russia's NATO envoy, at a news conference at NATO headquarters in Brussels
>>The USA govt / leaders are oposed to an attack of Iran
>>Five former U.S. secretaries of state -- Colin Powell, Madeleine Albright, Warren Christopher, James Baker and Henry Kissinger -- said that the next American administration should talk to Iran.
>>"We can't be complacent about the nuclear possibilities in Iran, but nevertheless we cannot afford not to have a comprehensive dialogue to see if it can be stopped because, frankly, the military options here are very, very poor. We don't want to go down that route."
-- Warren Christopher, who worked for former President Bill Clinton from 1993 to 1997, talking about Iran and a strategy to stop Tehran's development of its nuclear weapons program
>>"I believe we need to engage with Iran. I think the whole point is you try to engage and deal with countries that you have problems with."
-- Madeleine Albright, who was secretary of state in the second Bill Clinton administration, talking about Iran and a strategy to stop Tehran's development of its nuclear weapons program
>>Talking to the Iranians might be one way to get the message across that the United States could always aim its strategic nuclear arsenal at Iran if Iran developed nuclear weapons and aimed them at the United States or Israel.
"They would understand that, I think."
-- James Baker, who worked for former President George H.W. Bush, talking about Iran and a strategy to stop Tehran's development of its nuclear weapons program
>>"I am in favor of negotiating with Iran": Henry Kissinger
"Well, I am in favor of negotiating with Iran. And one utility of negotiation is to put before Iran our vision of a Middle East, of a stable Middle East, and our notion on nuclear proliferation at a high enough level so that they have to study it. And, therefore, I actually have preferred doing it at the secretary of state level so that we -- we know we're dealing with authentic."
-- Henry Kissinger, who served under Nixon and Ford, talking about Iran and a strategy to stop Tehran's development of its nuclear weapons program
>>An attack on Iran would be "extremely stressful" for US forces
A strike on Iran would open up a “third front” for the US - after Iraq and Afghanistan - and this could break an already stretched military.
-- Warning by the senior US military commander Adm Mike Mullen, chairman of the joint chiefs of staff and who has just visited Israel
>>The political leadership at the Pentagon is opposed to an attack on Iran
Robert Gates, the Defence Secretary, rarely misses an opportunity to caution in private about the risk associated with an attack on Iran.
>>"Another war in the Middle East is the last thing we need, and, in fact, I believe it would be disastrous on a number of levels. But the military option must be kept on the table."
-- Robert Gates, USA Secretary of Defense, in a speech at West Point, talking about Iran
>>The US Treasury is opposed to an attack on Iran
Hank Paulson, the Treasury Secretary, not only fears the damage to the US economy and markets that a strike would have as the price of oil rose to at least $200 per barrel. There is also growing optimism at the Treasury that the financial sanctions that it is co-ordinating against the Iranian regime are starting to bear fruit. Though German companies unscrupulously continue to shop around for business in Tehran, officials say, other European companies are increasing co-operating. This week's decision by Total, the French oil giant, to pull out of a possible investment in Iran is seen as a signal victory.
>>The US State Department is opposed to an attack on Iran
Condoleezza Rice and her colleagues are genuinely confident that they have toughened European resolve and that their diplomacy is working.
>>An attack on Iran by USA and/or Israel is not feasible
An attack on Iran by USA and/or Israel is not feasible
>>See corresponding sub-map
>>
References
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