Argument

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Israel will attack Iran - last updated Oct. 13, 2008

Background and Context

Israel will attack Iran to prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons.

Desirability: Undesirable
Importance: High
Volatility: High
Likelihood: High
Confidence: Medium

Argument Tree

Israel will attack Iran - last updated Oct. 13, 2008
If Iran continues its nuclear weapons program, Israel will attack it >>
Iran is building nuclear weapons
Iran is working on a military nuclear program to develop nuclear weapons. >>
See corresponding sub-map
>>
"Iran is taking a major risk by continuing the process of seeking nuclear technology for military ends, because one day, no matter which Israeli government is in power, one morning we will awake to find Israel has attacked. It's not a question of whether it is legitimate or intelligent or not. It would be a catastrophe, and we must avoid such a catastrophe." -- Nicolas Sarkozy, French President, at four-way summit in Syria >>
“If Iran continues with its program for developing nuclear weapons, we will attack.” [...] “Attacking Iran, in order to stop its nuclear plans, will be unavoidable.” -- Shaul Mofaz, deputy prime minister, in an interview with the Israeli newspaper Yediot Aharonot >>
Iran's possession of nuclear arms forms an existential threat to Israel >>
Israel is preparing for an attack on cq a war with Iran >>
USA has deployed an advanced early-warning radar system in Israel for detecting incoming missiles. It is so sophisticated that, for now, U.S. Army crews will be stationed there to operate it. >>
USA agreed to sell Israel sophisticated upgrades for the country's Patriot anti-missile missiles -- and send more than 100 technicians to install them. >>
U.S. to sell IAF smart bombs for heavily fortified targets
The USA will supply Israel with 1,000 units of Guided Bomb Unit-39 (GBU-39) - a special weapon developed for penetrating heavily fortified facilities located deep underground. They are small weapons that can be dropped from the wings of the fighter jets in Israel's air force. Each can penetrate 6 feet of reinforced concrete. If several aircraft hit the same target the total penetration could be much deeper. >>
In a secret agreement between Israel and Georgia, two military airfields in southern Georgia had been earmarked for the use of Israeli fighter-bombers in the event of pre-emptive attacks against Iranian nuclear installations. This would sharply reduce the distance Israeli fighter-bombers would have to fly to hit targets in Iran. And to reach Georgian airstrips, the Israeli air force would fly over Turkey. -- According to ARNAUD DE BORCHGRAVE, in his article, Israel of the Caucasus >>
Israel carried out a missile test
Israel has carried out tests to improve anti-missile systems to intercept both short- and medium-range rockets, including Katyusha rockets used by Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon and missiles in Iran's arsenal. >>
Israel carried out a large military exercise
More than 100 Israeli F-16 and F-15 fighters took part in the maneuvers over the eastern Mediterranean and Greece in the first week of June. The exercise also included Israeli helicopters that could be used to rescue downed pilots. The exercise appeared to be an effort to focus on long-range strikes. The helicopters and refueling tankers flew more than 900 miles. nb. 900 miles is about the distance between Israel and Iran’s uranium enrichment plant at Natanz. >>
An attack on Iran by USA and/or Israel is not feasible >>
See corresponding sub-map
>>

References

Work in Progress

Comments


Comments:

zanshin on 2008-09-08 01:21

Update Sept 8,2008

Statement of Nicolas Sarkozy, French President, at four-way summit in Syria added (link)

Statement regarding possible usage of Georgian airfields for pre-emptive attack on Iran by Israel added (link)


zanshin on 2008-09-15 04:12

Update Sept 15 ,2008

Statement titled, "U.S. to sell IAF smart bombs for heavily fortified targets" (link) added.


zanshin on 2008-09-18 08:17

Update Sept 18, 2008

Created a sub-map called: An attack on Iran by USA and/or Israel is not feasible" (link)


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Tags

Iran,   Israel,   Nuclear Weapons,   USA,  

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