Posted by: zanshin, 2008-12-15 06:04

Story

Pakistan’s Balkanization
Shahid R. Siddiqi, 2008-12-12 (Friday), Foreign Policy Journal
Re-mapping of the Muslim world is under the spotlight in the US and Pakistan's balkanization forms a part of this agenda. American strategists are propagating the need to redraw its borders along ethnic lines by creating new political entities in the name of justice long denied to "oppressed Muslim minorities". "Internal factors" are to be created and used, which they believe could lead to desired fragmentation. That this also reflects the mindset of the US administration can be seen by its efforts and actions to engineer grounds for military intervention, regime-change, or fragmentation in target countries.


Rising Jihadi movements, serious challenges to American hegemony, the economic meltdown in the US, declining limits of American power, and shifting of the economic epicenter to Asia all point to the emerging new political realities, wherein America stands to lose much of its power and glory by mid-century, if not sooner. This is forcing it to redefine its strategic global policy framework and pursue all options to subdue opponents and prevent its slide from power.

American strategists believe that fracturing and weakening the national unity of Islamic states could prevent militant Islam from gaining strongholds and choke their financial resources. They want oil rich territories like Kurdistan, the Eastern Arabian Peninsula, and Balochistan to be carved out, unified, and controlled by puppet regimes to secure energy resources and splinter other Muslim countries for easier micro-management. Iraq is already going through the motions and US invasion of a hostile Iran remains on the cards.

As for Pakistan, the US considers it unstable due to "political and economic mismanagement, divisive politics, lawlessness, corruption and ethnic friction" [Editor's note: quote from a CIA report] and cites these as causes for growing Talibanization. Hence it argues that this might bring Islamic radicals to power and give them control over the nukes – which can threaten Israel's security.

The US is also uncomfortable because Pakistan's army controls the nukes and remains an important player in the country's political dispensation. The US is conscious that the army resents American pressure to engage in a war against Taliban along the western border, firstly, because this creates bad blood with Pashtuns on both sides of the border, turning the population of a very sensitive border belt hostile to Pakistan which is not in its interest and, secondly, this distracts it from its major task of guarding the eastern border with India - a greater threat for Pakistan. For these reasons and also because having moved from the liberal British colonial mentality to a more conservative religious mindset, it has maintained close links with Jihadi groups and the Taliban during and after the failed Soviet invasion, until the US forced General Musharraf to abandon them after 9/11. The US believes that pro-Taliban officers still call the shots within the army and the Inter Services Intelligence (ISI) and hence has been pressurizing the Pakistan Government for a purge of both institutions. But the attempt of the Zardari government to move ISI from the Army control to civil control in order to appease its American benefactors backfired.

The US fears that Pakistan army might eventually cause the balance of war to tilt in Taliban's favor, which NATO forces have no chance of winning in any event, and drive out the US and Indian lackeys currently governing Kabul. Therefore to the US, to the Israelis and to their new partners in this region – the Indians, a weaker military in Pakistan with lesser geographical spread (confined to Punjab and perhaps Sindh), devoid of an effective intelligence agency and without nuclear fangs, is critical.

Of late, Balochistan has been the target in the Indian scheme of Pakistan's further dismemberment. India and the US were disturbed by Gen. Musharraf's overtures towards China, seeking Chinese strategic economic interests and presence in Balochistan. Motivated by the prospects of Balochistan's development and economic uplift and to checkmate foreign aided secessionist moves in the province, he was keen for China to use Gawadar-Sinkiang land corridor for its imports through Gawadar port and transportation of oil refined at a proposed Chinese owned Gawadar based refinery. China also showed interest in joining Pak-Iran gas pipeline project transiting through Balochistan. China's presence in Gawadar would bring it right up to the Indian Ocean, a sensitive spot both for Indians and Americans – the former seeing this as a threat to its control of the ocean with its upcoming blue water navy and the latter upset with its proximity to the Straits of Hormuz.

Now these are grounds enough to justify balkanization of Pakistan.

Col. Ralph Peters, supposedly Pentagon's military scholar and former intelligence official, writing in June 2006 issue of Armed Forces Journal on balkanization of the Middle East (Blood Borders), advocates the incorporation of NWFP into Afghanistan and creation of a sovereign Free Balochistan, carved out of Baloch areas of Pakistan and Iran. His grounds: ethnic affinity. Pakistani Balochistan is estimated to hold 25.1 trillion cft. of gas and 6 trillion barrels of oil.

In an article "Drawn and Quartered" Selig Harrison of the Center of International Policy, Washington, DC, concludes that Pakistan's balkanization is imminent owing to the rising nationalist sentiment in the Pashtun belt and growing disillusionment of the Pashtuns, Balochis and Sindhis with Punjab and Pakistan. He says that ethnic diversity threatens Pakistan's unity,

Both Col. Peters and Harrison are essentially singing the same tune and seem to be presenting a doctrine that broadly reflects US foreign policy.

General Aslam Beg, Pakistan's former Army Chief, notes in an article that to pursue certain common interests with regard to Pakistan and the region, India and the US have signed the Strategic Partnership Deal the declared objective of which is "to contain and curb the rising military and economic power of China and the increasing threat of Islamic extremism in the region". Gen. Beg says this deal has led to the creation of a joint espionage network of CIA, Mosad, MI-6, Raw and others in Afghanistan, which is engaged in activities aimed at destabilizing Pakistan, Iran, China, Russia and other Central Asian states. He claims that dissidents from Pakistan are being trained at Sarobi and Kandahar for missions inside NWFP, whereas bases at Lashkargah and Nawah are being used to train dissidents from Balochistan for missions inside that province and also in support of the so called Balochistan Liberation Army.

In this backdrop, recent calls by some Afghan leaders to 'liberate Pakistani Pashtuns', the departure of Gen. Musharraf and the cozy relationship between his successor and President Karazai assume significance. Deadly attacks by US drones and troops inside Pakistan's tribal territory, reportedly with the tacit consent of the Zardari Government, could draw a wedge between Pakistan and its independent tribes, who are angry at Pakistan's inability to protect them. And if the Pakistan Army is forced to move the bulk of its 100,000 troops from FATA to the eastern border in the event of Indian military build up in the wake of the Bombay incident, this would leave a vacuum for the US to redeploy its troops from Iraq to deep inside the Pakistani territory, virtually occupying the tribal Pashtun belt. This may be the first step towards splintering Pakistan.



Michel Chossudovsky, Director of Montreal based Center for Research on Globalization (author of America's "War on Terrorism") in his article "The Destabilization of Pakistan" says: "Washington's foreign policy course is to actively promote the political fragmentation and balkanization of Pakistan as a nation". He states: "The US course consists in fomenting social, ethnic and factional divisions and political fragmentation, including the territorial breakup of Pakistan. This course of action is also dictated by US war plans in relation to both Iran and Afghanistan. This US agenda for Pakistan is similar to that applied throughout the broader Middle East Central Asian region."

Chossudovsky points out that "the US strategy, supported by covert intelligence operations, consists in triggering ethnic and religious strife, abetting and financing secessionist movements while also weakening the institutions of the central government."

The US initiatives to fragment the Muslim world are misguided and would be a grave miscalculation, promising an extremely volatile and unstable geopolitical scenario. Given the economic and political constraints that the US now faces and the ability of Jehadis to challenge and even defeat US imperialism, which is a very plausible scenario, this could cause the situation to easily spiral out of control, proving counterproductive to US interests worldwide and seriously undermining the regional and international security environment. The US has failed to deal with insurgencies in Afghanistan and Iraq and has neither the capacity nor the stomach for a wider, longer and more serious conflict.

In case of Pakistan, the plan will not be easy to accomplish either. While no preventive role is expected of the imbecile political leadership, Pakistan's military - as guarantor of national security, supported by pro-Pakistan population, will fight off such moves. Having the benefit of East Pakistan experience behind it and physical limitations no more a handicap, the army would stand a much better chance at successfully maintaining national integrity.

~~

Shahid R. Siddiqi has worked as a journalist and a broadcaster, has held senior management positions in the corporate sector and has served in the Pakistan Air Force. He is currently a Lahore (Pakistan) based free lance journalist

© 2008 Foreign Policy Journal

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2009-02-11The Great Crash, 2008 -- A Geopolitical Setback for the West
2009-02-08One on One: 'With no likelihood of US use of force, that leaves Israel'
2009-02-12Obama’s Prime-Time Press Briefing -- Transcript
2009-02-17Shock Wave (Anti) Warrior
2009-05-10Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 -- Chapter 4: The Global Challenge of WMD Terrorism
2009-05-10Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 -- Chapter 1. Strategic Assessment
2009-04-04Can Pakistan Be Governed?
2009-04-13Pakistan To America: Back Off
2009-03-15Squaring the Pentagon
2007-02-20Transformational Diplomacy
2007-02-20Russia's hudna with the Muslim world
2007-01-25MIDDLE EAST - Timeline of recent developments
2007-02-10Q&A: Neocon power examined
2007-01-16What Would War Look Like?
2007-01-18Annotate This: Escalation in Iraq
2006-12-08WHAT'S IN A NAME - World War IV - Let's call this conflict what it is
2006-12-18“Osama’s Dream”
2007-03-14Sweden: Restrictive Immigration Policy and Multiculturalism
2007-03-10AN INTERVIEW WITH QUEEN NOOR
2007-04-12A Conversation With Vladimir Bukovsky
2007-04-04Kazakhstan: Reducing Nuclear Dangers, Increasing Global Security
2006-11-02World entering dangerous era of US impotence
2006-11-19PREPARING FOR A NEW COLD WAR, Part 2 - Asymmetric challenge to the US colossus
2006-09-23Europe Learns the Wrong Lessons
2006-09-09United States Secretary of State Colin Powell discusses recent concerns
2006-08-24Open letter to US President George W. Bush: Accuse him and his nation
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: Western Hemisphere Overview
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: Africa Overview
2007-05-05WHY IRAN WILL HAVE THE BOMB
2007-05-04Five events that changed the world in 2006
2007-05-10Six Nightmares: Real Threats in a Dangerous World and How America Can Meet Them
2007-05-10Hezbollah, Illegal Immigration, and the Next 9/11
2007-05-10A Reporter At Large: In The Party Of God (Part II)
2007-06-06Iran forces the issue in Afghanistan
2007-06-05President Bush Visits Prague, Czech Republic, Discusses Freedom
2007-05-26The Power Elite's Use Of War And Debt
2007-06-08Interview with Condoleezza Rice conducted by Wolf Blitzer, CNN Late Edition, 8 September 2002
2007-06-07US missiles hit Russia where it hurts
2007-06-12Globalizing Weakness: Is Global Poverty a Threat to the Interests of States?
2007-06-13Press Conference by the President
2007-06-22Rice Talks With Journal's Editorial Board
2007-06-28Outsourcing Torture -- The secret history of America’s “extraordinary rendition” program
2007-07-13Press Conference by the President
2007-07-12Republic or empire: A National Intelligence Estimate on the United States
2007-07-08Bin Laden's Fatwa
2007-07-22Fisk Interview with President Khatami
2007-08-08Red Mosque: Endgame for Musharraf?
2007-08-12How the ‘Good War’ in Afghanistan Went Bad
2007-08-16China, Russia, Central Asian leaders meet in security summit
2007-11-01Noam Chomsky - Controlled Asset Of The New World Order
2007-10-19Is Brand America In Trouble?
2007-10-20The Coming Civil War In Mexico
2007-10-21In Pakistan Quandary, U.S. Reviews Stance
2007-10-30Michael Ledeen discusses the Iranian Time Bomb
2007-10-10India's Tough Choice on Iran
2007-10-04Iran Is Found To Be a Lair of Al Qaeda - Intelligence Estimate Cites Two Councils
2007-10-04Open Fire
2007-10-05Drum beaters for Iran war should think again
2007-09-15The middle of nowhere
2007-09-11Lessons from the Bloc
2007-12-18Time for smart power
2007-12-12Iran:Time for a New Approach -- EXECUTIVE SUMMARY
2007-12-08Academic Feminists and Sharia
2007-11-15Volatile Pakistan
2007-11-22Towards fresh disaster in Iran
2008-01-21Stabilization and Democratization: Renewing the Transatlantic Alliance
2008-01-31THE NEW WORLD ORDER' -- A Critique and Chronology
2008-01-30The two faces of Amis
2007-12-27Policy Options Paper: Pakistan
2007-12-28How Pakistan Works
2007-12-28The Kurdish Policy Imperative
2008-05-31The U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran and Its Aftermath: A Roundtable of Israeli Experts
2008-05-29Advice for the Nuclear Abolitionists
2008-06-15President Bush Outlines Iraqi Threat
2008-06-15THE GEOPOLITICS OF CHINA: A Great Power Enclosed
2008-03-14Aims and Methods of Europe's Muslim Brotherhood
2008-03-06"Victory Would be a Fata Morgana"
2008-03-10God’s Country
2008-04-01The Big Guns Behind the Global War Machine -- The WTO and the Global War System
2008-03-29PAKISTAN & AL QAEDA: US REVIEWS OPTIONS
2008-02-22Conversations in International Relations: Interview with John J. Mearsheimer (Part I)
2008-02-02A Statesman Without Borders
2008-02-08The Fallacy of Grievance-based Terrorism
2008-07-31Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre delivers speech at Harvard University
2008-07-28The Geopolitics of Iran: Holding the Center of a Mountain Fortress
2008-08-11Will Iran Enter the Iraq War?
2008-08-12The Myth of Grass-Roots Terrorism -- Why Osama bin Laden Still Matters
2008-07-15A war waiting to happen
2008-07-09Shackled Warrior
2008-06-27The Wrong War -- Why We Lost in Vietnam -- Chapter One
2009-03-21The First-World Debt Crisis In Global Perspective
2009-05-10Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 -- Chapter 2. Country Reports: South and Central Asia Overview
2009-02-07Israel to Obama: hold Iran's feet to fire, or else
2009-02-22In the face of chaos
2009-01-06Expanding War, Contracting Meaning -- The Next President and the Global War on Terror
2009-01-11Globaloney
2009-01-23The Liberals' Grand Bargain
2009-02-01Preventing and Resolving Deadly Conflict: What Have We Learned?,
2008-09-12The Return of U. S. Death Squads
2008-09-26Big world, big future, big NATO
2008-08-28Vice President's Remarks on the 90th National Convention of the American Legion
2008-10-11What Went Wrong? Western Impact and Middle Eastern Response
2008-12-18The failed Muslim states to come
2008-11-24The Cult of Counterinsurgency
2008-11-14How the US can learn to survive and thrive -- Creative technology is the key
2008-11-14The US gas garrison -- Energy self-sufficiency not military escorts for oil
2008-11-11The Case for Restraint -- Niall Ferguson responds
2008-11-11The Case for Restraint -- Ruth Wedgwood responds
2008-11-13No Breathing Space in Washington -- Don't Let Barack Obama Break Your Heart
2008-11-08For Eyes of President-Elect Obama Only
2008-11-10Fighting the real fight
2009-07-16Why we must win in Afghanistan
2009-07-19Turkey and Russia on the Rise
2007-08-17Russia Sends Long Bombers Back on Patrol
2007-08-19Huge Human Cost Of Israel But Interim Peace Is Possible
2007-08-13The Limits of Multiculturalism - The Dutch Labor Party and Islam