Posted by: zanshin, 2008-12-16 03:34

Story

Let's Buy Pakistan's Nukes

Bret Stephens, 2008-12-16 (Tuesday), WSJ
Every visitor to Pakistan has seen them: 20-foot tall roadside replicas of a remote mountain where, a decade ago, Pakistan conducted its first overt nuclear tests. This is what the country's leaders -- military, secular, Islamist -- consider their greatest achievement.


So here's a modest proposal: Let's buy their arsenal.

A.Q. Khan, father of Pakistan's nuclear program (and midwife to a few others), likes to point out what a feat it was that a country "where we can't even make a bicycle chain" could succeed at such an immense technological task. He exaggerates somewhat: Pakistan got its bomb largely through a combination of industrial theft, systematic violation of Western export controls, and a blueprint of a weapon courtesy of Beijing.

Still, give Mr. Khan this: Thanks partly to his efforts, a country that has impoverished the great mass of its own people, corruptly enriched a tiny handful of elites, served as a base of terrorism against its neighbors, lost control of its intelligence services, radicalized untold numbers of Muslims in its madrassas, handed the presidency to a man known as Mr. 10%, and proliferated nuclear technology to Libya and Iran (among others) has, nevertheless, made itself a power to be reckoned with. Congratulations.

But if Pakistanis thought a bomb would be a net national asset, they miscalculated. Yes, Islamabad gained parity with its adversaries in New Delhi, gained prestige in the Muslim world, and gained a day of national pride, celebrated every May 28.

What Pakistan didn't gain was greater security. "The most significant reality was that the bomb promoted a culture of violence which . . . acquired the form of a monster with innumerable heads of terror," wrote Pakistani nuclear physicist Pervez Hoodbhoy earlier this year. "Because of this bomb, we can definitely destroy India and be destroyed in its response. But its function is limited to this."

In 2007, some 1,500 Pakistani civilians were killed in terrorist attacks. None of those attacks were perpetrated by India or any other country against which Pakistan's warheads could be targeted, unless it aimed at itself. But Pakistan's nuclear arsenal has made it an inviting target for the jihadists who blew up Islamabad's Marriott hotel in September and would gladly blow up the rest of the capital as a prelude to taking it over.

The day that happens may not be so very far off. President Asif Ali Zardari was recently in the U.S. asking for $100 billion to stave off economic collapse. So far, the international community has ponied up about $15 billion. That puts Mr. Zardari $85 billion shy of his fund-raising target. Meantime, the average Taliban foot soldier brings home monthly wages that are 30% higher than uniformed Pakistani security personnel.

Preventing the disintegration of Pakistan, perhaps in the wake of a war with India (how much restraint will New Delhi show after the next Mumbai-style atrocity?), will be the Obama administration's most urgent foreign-policy challenge. Since Mr. Obama has already committed a trillion or so in new domestic spending, what's $100 billion in the cause of saving the world?

This is the deal I have in mind. The government of Pakistan would verifiably eliminate its entire nuclear stockpile and the industrial base that sustains it. In exchange, the U.S. and other Western donors would agree to a $100 billion economic package, administered by an independent authority and disbursed over 10 years, on condition that Pakistan remain a democratic and secular state (no military rulers; no Sharia law). It would supplement that package with military aid similar to what the U.S. provides Israel: F-35 fighters, M-1 tanks, Apache helicopters. The U.S. would also extend its nuclear umbrella to Pakistan, just as Hillary Clinton now proposes to do for Israel.

A pipe dream? Not necessarily. People forget that the world has subtracted more nuclear powers over the past two decades than it has added: Kazakhstan, Belarus, Ukraine and South Africa all voluntarily relinquished their stockpiles in the 1990s. Libya did away with its program in 2003 when Moammar Gadhafi concluded that a bomb would be a net liability, and that he had more to gain by coming to terms with the West.

There's no compelling reason Mr. Zardari and his military brass shouldn't reach the same conclusion, assuming excellent terms and desperate circumstances. Sure, a large segment of Pakistanis will never agree. Others, who have subsisted on a diet of leaves and grass so Pakistan could have its bomb, might take a more pragmatic view.

The tragedy of Pakistan is that it remains a country that can't do the basics, like make a bicycle chain. If what its leaders want is prestige, prosperity and lasting security, they could start by creating an economy that can make one -- while unlearning how to make the bomb.

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Abdul Qadeer Khan,   Asif Ali Zardari,   Belarus,   Blackwater,   China,   Economy,   Failed State,   Hillary Clinton,   India,   Iran,   Israel,   Kazakhstan,   Libya,   military,   Muammar al-Gaddafi,   Muslims,   Nuclear Weapons,   Obama,   Pakistan,   Secular,   Sharia,   South Africa,   Taliban,   Terrorism,   Ukraine,   USA,   War On Terror,   WMD,  

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2007-12-22Clinton on Foreign Policy at University of Nebraska
2007-12-07A new Chinese red line over Iran
2008-02-08A Dialogue on Islamists and Democracy
2008-01-30The two faces of Amis
2008-01-30Jew-Hatred and Jihad -- The Nazi roots of the 9/11 attack
2008-02-21'America Alone: The End of the World as We Know It' -- A review
2008-02-17Britain's Encounter with Islamic Law
2008-02-18The Next Christianity
2008-03-03Us and Them -- The Enduring Power of Ethnic Nationalism
2008-02-29The new wars of religion
2007-11-01Walker's World: The Indo-Pakistan hyphen
2007-10-31RUSSIA: Nuclear renaissance?
2007-11-04Musharraf Consolidates His Control With Arrests
2007-11-05Commentary: Geopolitical nightmare
2007-11-12NATO Expands into Arab South
2007-11-12FETHULLAH GULEN AND HIS LIBERAL "TURKISH ISLAM" MOVEMENT
2007-11-12One Nuclear Power
2007-11-09HOW STUPID DO THEY THINK WE ARE?
2007-11-20Whose War?
2007-11-22The United States’ new backyard
2007-11-21Invade Pakistan? -- Are they kidding?
2007-12-02The Smart Way to Beat Tyrants Like Chavez
2007-10-12The Iconoclast
2007-10-09SYRIA: Regime interests dictate regional policies
2007-10-04Iran Is Found To Be a Lair of Al Qaeda - Intelligence Estimate Cites Two Councils
2007-10-05Drum beaters for Iran war should think again
2007-09-25Distorting Desire
2007-09-25Pakistan Faces Potential Al-Qaida Threat
2007-09-08Knowing the Enemy
2007-09-14The Iranian Dilemma: things are worse than they seem for Japan?
2007-09-21While the West Loses Its Soft Power
2008-04-23The Clash of Civilizations: Some Beginnings of Psychological Analysis
2008-04-23NATO and European Energy Security
2008-04-05The Coming of Eurabia
2008-04-06Benazir Bhutto's 'Reconciliation': Islam, Democracy, and the West
2008-04-07Famine, food and fertilizer
2008-03-24It Wasn't On Oprah or Fox News -- How Could Hillary Have Known?
2008-03-29PAKISTAN & AL QAEDA: US REVIEWS OPTIONS
2008-06-02Atomic Market: What Benazir knew