Posted by: zanshin, 2009-02-02 12:27

Story

Obama Call for More NATO Troops in Afghanistan May Go Unheeded

Ken Fireman, 2009-02-01 (Sunday), Bloomberg
President Barack Obama has made clear he is counting on America’s NATO allies for greater military contributions in Afghanistan. He may be in for a disappointment.

Most European leaders have either ruled out sending more troops to buttress the fight against a resurgent Taliban, or talked about increases that number only in the hundreds.

In encountering such reluctance, the U.S. is paying a price for its past errors, says Anthony Cordesman, a military analyst at Washington’s Center for Strategic and International Studies.

“We asked NATO to join us in a peacemaking, post-conflict reconstruction effort when we hadn’t won the war, and let the insurgency grow to where it threatened to take over the country,” Cordesman says. “Now we’re dissatisfied because these countries that signed up for something different aren’t willing to bail us out of our own mistakes.”

With the U.S. preparing to deploy as many as 30,000 additional troops, the result is likely to be a growing Americanization of a military effort that was supposed to mark the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s first significant out- of-area operation.

The issue will be an early test of Obama’s international leadership. The new president highlighted the war in a Jan. 22 letter to alliance members, in which he said NATO “has much to be proud of, but also much work to do,” including “helping the people of Afghanistan build a better future.”

Munich Conference

NATO’s contributions to the Afghan effort will be spotlighted in a series of international meetings, starting later this week at the annual Munich Conference on Security Policy.

The U.S. delegation in Germany will include Vice President Joe Biden; White House National Security Adviser James Jones; the new envoy for Afghanistan and Pakistan, Richard Holbrooke; and Army General David Petraeus, the commander of all American forces in the Middle East and Central Asia. Jones, a retired Marine Corps general, is the former NATO supreme commander in Europe.

The discussion of Afghan strategy will continue at meetings of NATO defense ministers in Krakow, Poland, later this month and alliance foreign ministers in Brussels early next month. It will culminate in April at a summit of NATO heads of government in Strasbourg, France, marking the 60th anniversary of the alliance.

Obama’s Popularity

U.S. officials say they are hopeful that Obama’s international popularity will spring loose new troop contributions that European leaders were unwilling -- or politically unable -- to make during George W. Bush’s presidency.

“My sense is, from some of the information and diplomatic comments and public comments that some leaders have made in Europe, that they are prepared to be asked and that they are prepared to do something,” Defense Secretary Robert Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee on Jan. 27.

“In fact, there’s some indication that a few of our allies have been sitting on a capability so that they could give the new president something when he asks,” Gates said.

But recent statements by European leaders don’t support such expectations.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel signaled on Jan. 20 -- the day Obama was inaugurated -- that her government would resist a new troop commitment. “Nothing will change in the short term for Germany because we’ve really embraced our responsibilities in the past,” she said in an ARD television interview.

Ruling Out an Increase

French Defense Minister Herve Morin -- whose country has the fourth largest contingent in Afghanistan behind the U.S., U.K. and Germany -- also ruled out more troops in a Jan. 21 interview with Europe1 Radio.

A British Defence Ministry spokesman said Jan. 30 that while the U.K. may bolster its Afghan force when its mission in Iraq ends later this year, it won’t be a one-for-one swap. That means the increase in Afghanistan will be less than the 4,000 to be pulled out of Iraq.

The U.K. has 8,910 troops in Afghanistan, Germany 3,405 and France 2,890, according to NATO.

Italy, which has 2,350 troops in the country, according to NATO, agreed last month to add 300 and isn’t planning any additional increases. Poland is considering increasing its presence to 2,000 from its current 1,600.

A substantial NATO troop contributor outside Europe is Canada, which has more than 2,500 soldiers in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan Exposure

Christine Fair, an analyst at the RAND Corp. policy- research organization in Arlington, Virginia, said there is “debate among German military officials that they could do more -- and they could. But they don’t call those shots. I don’t see in European capitals any desire to increase their exposure in Afghanistan.”

Meanwhile, the U.S. has 23,220 in the NATO force, according to the alliance, and about 36,000 troops in Afghanistan altogether, according to the Pentagon.

While the new administration is in the midst of a strategy review and hasn’t made any final decisions about Afghanistan, Admiral Michael Mullen said in a Jan. 29 interview that close to 30,000 additional U.S. forces will likely go to Afghanistan over the course of 2009. Mullen is chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff and Obama’s most senior uniformed military adviser.

If that level of reinforcements comes to pass, the current ratio of U.S.-to-European forces in Afghanistan, about 1 to 1, will grow to 2 to 1. And because some NATO members, such as Germany, won’t allow their troops to be deployed in areas where combat is most intense, the U.S. will carry the military burden to an even greater degree than the numbers indicate.

NATO Role

The upshot may be a slow-motion reversal of the decision during the Bush administration to let NATO take over responsibility for security in Afghanistan as the U.S. became increasingly preoccupied with Iraq.

Still, as Gates indicated in his Senate testimony, there are ways apart from adding combat troops for NATO members to contribute.

One, he said, would be for countries to lift restrictions on how their forces can be deployed. Another would be to send civilian specialists in economic development, governance and drug control. Yet another would be to help meet the estimated $17 billion cost of expanding Afghan security forces.

For example, Merkel may be willing to send police trainers to Afghanistan, even if she isn’t prepared to deploy more troops in an election year, says Karl-Heinz Kamp, director of research at the NATO Defense College in Rome. German national elections are scheduled for September.

Such initiatives may provide an opportunity for crafting a face-saving compromise, says Shada Islam, an analyst at the European Policy Centre in Brussels.

“Nobody wants the NATO summit in Strasbourg in April to turn into a shouting match,” Islam says. “So these are the kinds of things that are being considered and may be announced there.”

~~

Last Updated: February 1, 2009 14:00 EST

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Afghanistan,   Asia,   Biden,   Britain,   Bush,   Canada,   David Petraeus,   Europe,   France,   Germany,   Iraq,   Islam,   Italy,   Merkel,   Michael Mullen,   military,   NATO,   Obama,   Pakistan,   Poland,   Richard Holbrooke,   Robert Gates,   Taliban,   USA,  

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2007-06-05Interview: Putin Likely to Remain Powerful Figure After 2008
2007-05-21Why It Happened the Way It Did
2007-05-02President Bush Meets with EU Leaders -- 2007 U.S.-EU Summit
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Briefing on Release of 2006
2007-05-10A Reporter At Large: In The Party Of God (Part II)
2007-07-01Why the Future May Not Belong to Islam
2007-07-01Bush and Lincoln -- Echoes of the past in today's strategic mistakes
2007-06-29Courting Politics: A Supreme Moment in American History
2007-06-22Rice Talks With Journal's Editorial Board
2007-06-17Gen. Wesley Clark Weighs Presidential Bid: "I Think About It Everyday
2007-06-18Israel-Lebanon conflict - timeline of events
2007-07-17Why Bush Will Be A Winner
2007-07-16The Lose-Lose War
2007-07-16Cheney pushes Bush to act on Iran
2007-07-16Will Iran Be Next?
2007-07-22Fisk Interview with President Khatami
2006-05-01THE SO-CALLED EVIDENCE IS A FARCE: FORMER GREEN BERET SAYS BUSH IS LYING
2006-09-19THE AGITATOR
2006-09-09President Bush Delivers Remarks on Terrorism
2006-10-03The ideology of terror
2006-09-29China -- PART 2: Tequila trap beckons China
2006-10-26Musharraf's confessions
2006-10-29Taking the Fight to the Taliban
2006-10-13A new transatlantic role for Britain
2006-10-15Willy Brandt - The Nobel Peace Prize 1971 - Nobel Lecture
2006-11-26Islam, Terror and the Second Nuclear Age
2006-11-02World entering dangerous era of US impotence
2006-11-05Empire Falls
2006-11-05German Detainee Questions His Country’s Role
2006-11-18Globalization: The Long-Run Big Picture
2007-04-25Gravy Train: Feeding The Pentagon By Feeding Somalia
2007-04-25The Crime of War: From Nuremberg to Fallujah
2007-04-02From the Wonderful Folks Who Brought You Iraq
2007-04-04The Next World Order
2007-04-05"Promoting Democracy: A Progressive Foreign Policy Agenda".
2007-03-27War on terror progress report
2007-03-21Chris Hedges: The Christian Right’s War on America
2007-03-14Sweden: Restrictive Immigration Policy and Multiculturalism
2007-03-14The Geopolitics of Energy: Speech given at the IP Week, 2007
2007-03-14Review of Current Trends in U.S. Foreign Policy
2007-03-01Heineken N.V. -- Encyclopedia Of Company Histories
2007-03-03Scapegoating Pakistan
2007-03-05JOHN PILGER: THIS WAR OF LIES GOES ON
2007-03-05Not in our name
2007-03-10Regime change is the reason, disarmament the excuse: An interview with Scott Ritter
2007-02-20Misplaying North Korea and Losing Friends and Influence in Northeast Asia
2007-02-18After Neoconservatism
2007-02-26Which Will It Be America, Empire or Democracy?
2007-01-30The Krakow Initiative: Another blow from Bush
2007-01-27My Worst Moment As a Lawyer
2007-01-25Make War Your Friend, Part I
2007-01-23Al Jazeera's Global GambleA PEJ Interview
2007-01-16Guantanamo stirs protests
2007-01-14Natural Resources are Fuelling a New Cold War
2006-12-09Backgrounder: The Implications of 'Civil War' in Iraq
2006-12-16Revamping Us Foreign Policy, Part 1 - Full speed ahead, with menace
2006-12-26The Great Game on a razor's edge
2007-11-11 case number IT-04-74-T, the Prosecutor versus Prlic et al
2007-11-12NATO Expands into Arab South