Posted by: zanshin, 2009-05-12 01:22

Story

The allies fight the ‘wrong’ war in Afghanistan
Max Hastings, 2009-05-10 (Sunday), FT
It is frustrating for the US government to be making strategy for a battlefield while knowing that the strategic outcome will be decided on another one. The current redeployments in Afghanistan are taking place in the knowledge that Pakistan matters much more. The most important change in the thinking of Washington and its allies over the past year derives from recognition they are fighting the wrong war, or at least running a sideshow.

The purpose of the 2001 US invasion was to deny sanctuary to terrorists based in Afghanistan. Yet al-Qaeda today plays only a marginal role in that country, while being deeply rooted in Pakistan. Western forces find themselves engaged in an ill-defined campaign to stabilise Afghan tribal society, while being unable to use troops across the border, where most Pakistanis are bitterly hostile to the US.

This is not a predicament likely to promote happy policy-making. The British are doing their utmost to forge a common strategy with the US. The maintenance of the Atlantic alliance is, as always, the Brown government’s foremost objective. The Obama administration is sincerely grateful for British support, which has become especially important as conditions in Afghanistan have worsened.

Tensions and differences are inescapable, however. First, the prestige of the British army has suffered severely from what the US army perceives as British defeat in southern Iraq. Last month’s dignified disengagement ceremony at the British base outside Basra should not disguise the fact that the UK is thought to have failed there.

In Afghanistan, Britons and Americans are sharply critical of each other’s military performance. Some US soldiers believe the British in Helmand have become cautious, casualty-averse, and handle relations with the Afghans insensitively. The British, in their turn, think the Americans much too careless about inflicting “collateral damage” on civilians, especially through air strikes.

They question whether Hellfire missile strikes against Taliban and al-Qaeda leaders inside Pakistan justify the political damage which these inflict, by rousing popular Pakistani anger. They are sceptical about whether a key element of US policy, ambitious expansion of the Afghan army, can work. They perceive the pool of credible Afghan officers and NCOs as almost exhausted.

The “surge” of 21,000 US troop reinforcements is taking place in advance of coherent operational objectives being identified. Is the aim to enable President Hamid Karzai’s creaking and corrupt central government in Kabul to extend its influence throughout the country? Or should the allies endorse and subsidise local warlords and tribal leaders, if they forswear insurgency and abandon support for al-Qaeda?

The Bush administration’s policies were dominated by a crude belief that democracy in itself promised Arcadian outcomes for Muslim societies. London and Washington now agree that this was a foolish delusion. But western governments find it extraordinarily difficult to define an acceptable alternative to, or modification of, democracy.

None of this is intended to suggest that either the Americans or British want to pack their bags in Afghanistan. On the contrary, there is agreement that the restoration of Taliban rule there would hasten an implosion of Pakistan. But even those of us who share this view are dogged by fears that US and British forces are fighting in support of an unsustainable Afghan political construct.

The allies’ enthusiasm for “putting an Afghan face on the campaign” must be right. But where are the uncorrupt, administratively competent Afghans to make this happen? Washington and London agree that “saving” Afghanistan requires a long-haul commitment, which may prove tough with flagging domestic enthusiasm for the war.

Unless some visible progress is achieved within, say, two years, all bets are off. Sufficient Afghans watch CNN and al-Jazeera to perceive this for themselves, whatever the British and American message on the ground.

On the credit side, the Americans and British are at last asking the right questions. In Washington, there is a recognition that the region must be addressed as a whole, reflected in President Barack Obama’s joint meeting last week with Pakistani and Afghan national leaders. Once the Indian election is over, US diplomats will address what they recognise as a vital factor in the equation: India’s armed stand-off with Pakistan. Only if the Pakistani army abandons its obsession with the Kashmiri border can it contend convincingly with the country’s insurgency. But it is much easier to identify this reality than to change it.

The most obvious feature of the Afghan war in the months ahead is that it will become, in the phrase of indiscreet US soldiers, “re-Americanised”. The Americans perceive Nato as lacking both means and will to grip the situation. The most important priority for Washington is to determine exactly what its soldiers hope to accomplish, rather than making it up as they go along.

The writer is an FT contributing editor

Copyright The Financial Times Limited 2009

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Afghanistan,   al-Jazeera,   Al-Qaeda,   Britain,   Bush,   democracy,   Iraq,   military,   Muslims,   NATO,   Obama,   Pakistan,   Taliban,   USA,   War On Terror,  

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2007-01-24The price of hypocrisy
2007-02-20Misplaying North Korea and Losing Friends and Influence in Northeast Asia
2007-02-18After Neoconservatism
2007-02-26Cheney makes secret trip to Pakistan
2007-03-14Timeline of events in the Cold War
2007-03-05Inside story of the hunt for Bin Laden
2007-03-18Terrorists Proving Harder to Profile -- European Officials Say Traits of Suspected Islamic Extremists Are Constantly Shifting
2007-03-21Chris Hedges: The Christian Right’s War on America
2007-03-24Is the American Empire on the Brink of Collapse?
2007-04-03Does a terrorist care who’s in the White House? -- Democrat fantasies about foreign policy
2007-04-01'We Warned the United States'
2007-04-02From the Wonderful Folks Who Brought You Iraq
2007-03-31The Second Lebanon War -- It probably won't be the last
2007-04-05"Promoting Democracy: A Progressive Foreign Policy Agenda".
2007-04-10How to Get Out of Iraq
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: Western Hemisphere Overview
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Briefing on Release of 2006
2007-04-27President Presents Medal of Freedom
2007-08-09US Vis-à-Vis Pakistan
2007-08-08Germany Left Out of Global Policy Loop
2007-08-08Red Mosque: Endgame for Musharraf?
2007-08-17U.S. urges Musharraf, Bhutto to consider cooperating