Posted by: zanshin, 2007-04-04 02:41

Story

"Don't Attack Saddam" -- OP-ED Wall Street Journal
Brent Scowcroft, 2002-08-15 (Thursday), Wall Street Journal
Our nation is presently engaged in a debate about whether to launch a war against Iraq. Leaks of various strategies for an attack on Iraq appear with regularity. The Bush administration vows regime change, but states that no decision has been made whether, much less when, to launch an invasion.

It is beyond dispute that Saddam Hussein is a menace. He terrorizes and brutalizes his own people. He has launched war on two of his neighbors. He devotes enormous effort to rebuilding his military forces and equipping them with weapons of mass destruction. We will all be better off when he is gone.

That said, we need to think through this issue very carefully. We need to analyze the relationship between Iraq and our other pressing priorities -- notably the war on terrorism -- as well as the best strategy and tactics available were we to move to change the regime in Baghdad.

Saddam's strategic objective appears to be to dominate the Persian Gulf, to control oil from the region, or both.

That clearly poses a real threat to key U.S. interests. But there is scant evidence to tie Saddam to terrorist organizations, and even less to the Sept. 11 attacks. Indeed Saddam's goals have little in common with the terrorists who threaten us, and there is little incentive for him to make common cause with them.

He is unlikely to risk his investment in weapons of mass destruction, much less his country, by handing such weapons to terrorists who would use them for their own purposes and leave Baghdad as the return address. Threatening to use these weapons for blackmail -- much less their actual use -- would open him and his entire regime to a devastating response by the U.S. While Saddam is thoroughly evil, he is above all a power-hungry survivor.

Saddam is a familiar dictatorial aggressor, with traditional goals for his aggression. There is little evidence to indicate that the United States itself is an object of his aggression. Rather, Saddam's problem with the U.S. appears to be that we stand in the way of his ambitions. He seeks weapons of mass destruction not to arm terrorists, but to deter us from intervening to block his aggressive designs.

Given Saddam's aggressive regional ambitions, as well as his ruthlessness and unpredictability, it may at some point be wise to remove him from power. Whether and when that point should come ought to depend on overall U.S. national security priorities. Our pre-eminent security priority -- underscored repeatedly by the president -- is the war on terrorism. An attack on Iraq at this time would seriously jeopardize, if not destroy, the global counterterrorist campaign we have undertaken.

The United States could certainly defeat the Iraqi military and destroy Saddam's regime. But it would not be a cakewalk. On the contrary, it undoubtedly would be very expensive -- with serious consequences for the U.S. and global economy -- and could as well be bloody. In fact, Saddam would be likely to conclude he had nothing left to lose, leading him to unleash whatever weapons of mass destruction he possesses.

Israel would have to expect to be the first casualty, as in 1991 when Saddam sought to bring Israel into the Gulf conflict. This time, using weapons of mass destruction, he might succeed, provoking Israel to respond, perhaps with nuclear weapons, unleashing an Armageddon in the Middle East. Finally, if we are to achieve our strategic objectives in Iraq, a military campaign very likely would have to be followed by a large-scale, long-term military occupation.

But the central point is that any campaign against Iraq, whatever the strategy, cost and risks, is certain to divert us for some indefinite period from our war on terrorism. Worse, there is a virtual consensus in the world against an attack on Iraq at this time. So long as that sentiment persists, it would require the U.S. to pursue a virtual go-it-alone strategy against Iraq, making any military operations correspondingly more difficult and expensive. The most serious cost, however, would be to the war on terrorism. Ignoring that clear sentiment would result in a serious degradation in international cooperation with us against terrorism. And make no mistake, we simply cannot win that war without enthusiastic international cooperation, especially on intelligence.

Possibly the most dire consequences would be the effect in the region. The shared view in the region is that Iraq is principally an obsession of the U.S. The obsession of the region, however, is the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. If we were seen to be turning our backs on that bitter conflict -- which the region, rightly or wrongly, perceives to be clearly within our power to resolve -- in order to go after Iraq, there would be an explosion of outrage against us. We would be seen as ignoring a key interest of the Muslim world in order to satisfy what is seen to be a narrow American interest.

Even without Israeli involvement, the results could well destabilize Arab regimes in the region, ironically facilitating one of Saddam's strategic objectives. At a minimum, it would stifle any cooperation on terrorism, and could even swell the ranks of the terrorists. Conversely, the more progress we make in the war on terrorism, and the more we are seen to be committed to resolving the Israel-Palestinian issue, the greater will be the international support for going after Saddam.

If we are truly serious about the war on terrorism, it must remain our top priority. However, should Saddam Hussein be found to be clearly implicated in the events of Sept. 11, that could make him a key counterterrorist target, rather than a competing priority, and significantly shift world opinion toward support for regime change.

In any event, we should be pressing the United Nations Security Council to insist on an effective no-notice inspection regime for Iraq -- any time, anywhere, no permission required. On this point, senior administration officials have opined that Saddam Hussein would never agree to such an inspection regime. But if he did, inspections would serve to keep him off balance and under close observation, even if all his weapons of mass destruction capabilities were not uncovered. And if he refused, his rejection could provide the persuasive casus belli which many claim we do not now have. Compelling evidence that Saddam had acquired nuclear-weapons capability could have a similar effect.

In sum, if we will act in full awareness of the intimate interrelationship of the key issues in the region, keeping counterterrorism as our foremost priority, there is much potential for success across the entire range of our security interests -- including Iraq. If we reject a comprehensive perspective, however, we put at risk our campaign against terrorism as well as stability and security in a vital region of the world.

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9/11,   Arab,   Bush,   Counterterrorism,   Economy,   Iraq,   Israel,   military,   Muslims,   Oil,   Persian Gulf,   Saddam Hussein,   Terrorism,   United Nations,   USA,   War,   War On Terror,   WMD,  

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2008-01-29Challenging a Unipolar World
2008-01-31Israeli-Turkish military cooperation: Iranian perceptions and responses
2008-02-01Iraq: The Way Out -- Transcript
2008-02-02Escaping “Submission"
2008-02-04Arming the Middle East
2008-02-06How Bush Created a Theocracy in Iraq
2008-02-06The 2007 Irving Kristol Lecture by Bernard Lewis
2008-02-08Eurabia - Europe's Future? -- A briefing by Bat Ye'or
2008-02-08Assessing the Islamist Threat, Circa 1946
2008-01-24The Three Rs: Rivalry, Russia, ’Ran
2008-10-09U.S. Study Is Said to Warn of Crisis in Afghanistan
2008-10-11America and Political Islam: Clash of Cultures or Clash of Interests?
2008-09-25Power, Politics & Scholarship
2008-09-12Iran Must Get Ready to Repel a Nuclear Attack
2008-09-17Le Feyt Declaration - Peace in Iraq is an option
2008-08-25Securitarism, reproduction of disorder and erosion of democratic rule of law
2008-08-11Rethinking the National Interest -- American Realism for a New World
2008-08-12The Myth of Grass-Roots Terrorism -- Why Osama bin Laden Still Matters
2008-10-30Pakistan: Waiting with bated breath
2008-10-15A mad scramble over Afghanistan
2008-11-06Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: Africa Overview
2008-11-03Redefining U.S. Interests in the Middle East
2008-11-09Blueprint for Change -- Obama and Biden’s Plan for America
2008-11-20Russia And The New World Order -- The Geopolitical Project Of Pax Eurasiatica
2008-11-14Labour’s love’s lost -- Tragedy of the great persuader
2008-11-13Between Hope and Reality -- An Open Letter to Barack Obama
2009-06-16CNN WOLF BLITZER REPORTS -- Special Edition from Qatar
2009-06-07Obama in Cairo: High Words, Low Truths
2009-05-10Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 -- Chapter 3: State Sponsors of Terrorism
2009-05-10Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 -- Chapter 2. Country Reports: South and Central Asia Overview
2009-05-10Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 -- Chapter 2. Country Reports: East Asia and Pacific Overview
2009-01-19This war on terrorism is bogus
2009-01-06Expanding War, Contracting Meaning -- The Next President and the Global War on Terror
2008-12-14Use of the Veto on United Nations Resolutions by the USA
2009-07-20Transcript of President Barack Obama's speech at the National Archives
2009-07-20"Watch What We Do, Not What We Say"
2009-09-12No Escape From Guantánamo -- The Latest Habeas Corpus Rulings
2009-07-08So This Is What Victory Looks Like?
2009-07-16Why we must win in Afghanistan
2013-02-09It Has Happened Here -- The Police State Is Real
2011-08-25The Truth About The Situation In Libya: Cutting Through Government Propaganda And Media Lies
2011-08-25The Truth About The Situation In Libya: Cutting Through Government Propaganda And Media Lies
2012-06-18Secret ‘kill List’ Proves A Test Of Obama’s Principles And Will -- A Measure Of Change
2011-03-02Tomgram: Chris Hellman, $1.2 Trillion For National Security
2011-03-03Nato's Inevitable War -- To The Shores Of Tripoli?
2007-07-08U.S. Aborted Raid on Qaeda Chiefs in Pakistan in ’05
2007-07-07Bin Laden tape: Text
2007-07-09Her Jewish State
2007-07-10Brown's foreign policy is still a mystery
2007-07-03Contesting the Threat of Terrorism
2007-07-04Grand Strategy for a Divided America
2007-07-05The Secret Way to War
2007-07-17The terrorist threat to the US homeland
2007-07-16The Lose-Lose War
2007-07-17A world wide web of terror
2007-07-12Republic or empire: A National Intelligence Estimate on the United States
2007-07-13The New York Times Surrenders -- A monument to defeatism on the editorial page
2007-07-15“Two States Or One State” -- Debate by Uri Avnery & Ilan Pappe
2007-06-18Israel-Lebanon conflict - timeline of events
2007-06-22Rice Talks With Journal's Editorial Board
2007-06-16African Gothic
2007-07-01Democratic Realism -- An American Foreign Policy for a Unipolar World