Posted by: zanshin, 2007-06-11 02:53

Story

NATO's and EU's credibility at stake
Francois Gere, 2007-06-07 (Thursday), Le Figaro
Having threatened to target the Polish and Czech military facilities where the USA has envisaged installing a radar system and 10 anti-missile interceptors, [Russian President] Vladimir Putin's government has made it known that it is suspending its participation in the treaty on Conventional Forces in Europe (CFE) signed between NATO and the Warsaw Pact in 1990. This treaty, which stabilized the military situation on the continent by reducing both camps' arsenals, soon became obsolete as a result of the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact, followed soon after by its former members' accession to NATO.


The sharpness of Russia's statements suggest some dire remake of the Cold War. But this is in no way a "return to hell" but, rather, a new scenario of confrontation played out between old actors, a faithful reflection of current developments and of the future outlines of their balance of power. It is the embryonic story of a new and very different confrontation between two states - one that intends to derive the utmost benefit from its position of power and another trying to limit its decline in the hope of an early recovery. On the one hand there is Russia, structurally weakened but keeping up in some areas, and on the other the United States, bogged down in Iraq but structurally still dominant. Last, there are the Europeans, divided no longer by military walls but by their political uncertainties within both the NATO and the EU frameworks. We are witnessing the emergence of two manoeuvres which, without being in direct opposition for the present, will indeed lead to a confrontation unless they are properly remedied. First, there is the US geostrategic drive since 1990. Occupying new positions, establishing future footholds (Central Asia, the Caucasus, the Caspian ... [newspaper ellipsis]) the USA has advanced steadily across continental Eurasia. In this regard its anti-missile projects constitute only a minor aspect, probably premature and unnecessarily-provocative in view of the modest benefits deriving from them. But this undertaking is consistent with the USA's strategic approach, based on might and advanced technology. The Czech and Polish facilities will be connected to Cheyenne Mountain, the headquarters of the US command's communications system, in charge of the conduct of the strategy to dominate space and information. Russia knows all this. It was also in this field that it lost the Cold War. This is indeed why it wants to execute its own counter-manoeuvre. At present the Kremlin can pursue only a strategy of intimidation - a few launches of modern rockets and ransom demands in connection with energy. Furthermore, Mr Putin is tactically, and cunningly, exploiting all the USA's weaknesses (in connection with Iraq, Iran, Palestine ... [newspaper ellipsis]). He is also using every procedure of psychological action, thus rediscovering old networks of support among former communists, joined by those disillusioned with economic liberalism in Eastern Europe. It is doubtful that the United States, still less NATO, can now to find any effective countermeasures to this subtle manoeuvre. Between these two strategies, which will take all the time they need, partly as a result of their errors, there are the member states of the Atlantic alliance and/or the EU, which organizations are pulled in different directions by the conflicting effects of their respective enlargements - with Poland wanting to secure a guarantee against Russia by every means possible, Germany keen to preserve Russia's friendship and thus dismayed by Poland's anxiety and France keen to preserve compatibility between its enduring alliance with Germany and the need for a good understanding with Moscow. Thus the absence of a common European posture embodies the seed of rampant bipolarization. Of course there will be no return to any Berlin Wall or Oder-Neisse Line but the geographical facts cannot be gainsaid. Washington, Moscow and Beijing are probably within range of mutually-destructive nuclear ballistic missiles. The nuclear deterrent strategy manages this fairly well. But there is, more specifically, the iron law of neighbourhood, of immediate presence, with the consequent innumerable effects of influence. Let us consider the Baltic states - they cannot fail to fear for their independence, haunted by the spectre of a return to "Finlandization". In Tallinn recently, as a result of a dispute over the location of a monument commemorating World War II, a fatality and dozens of injuries reminded us that symbols can still cause bloodshed. How many will die in the future over similar matters?


It is therefore important to expect negative sequences of events in order to avert them in time - Russian intimidation, which will drive into the USA's arms neighbours whose growing hostility will exacerbate Moscow's anxious frustration, the re-establishment of spheres of influence that will justify the expansion of military arsenals and so forth. The credibility of NATO and the EU is at stake in this limited issue of anti-missile defence. Minor causes, major effects ... [newspaper ellipsis]

Francois Gere, chairman of the French Institute of Strategic Analysis

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Asia,   Caspian,   Caucasus,   Czech Republic,   Energy,   EU,   Eurasia,   Europe,   France,   Germany,   Iran,   Iraq,   iron,   KGI Missile Shield,   liberalism,   military,   NATO,   Palestine,   Poland,   Putin,   Russia,   USA,   War,  

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2008-05-05Global Neo-Liberalism, the Deformation of Education and Resistance
2008-04-18Choosing War: The Decision to Invade Iraq and Its Aftermath
2008-08-21The Breaking Point -- A New Age of Torture
2008-08-08Russia Sends Troops Into Rebel Enclave in Georgia
2008-08-12Russia, France announce formula to end Georgia fighting
2008-08-13The Real Aggressor
2008-07-28Reflections on Leadership
2008-07-27America, Iran and faulty intelligence: Bernd Debusmann
2008-08-04Intensify the witch-hunt -- Making us safer is not the aim
2008-08-07Brzezinski’s bunker
2008-06-24Chomsky Speaks -- On Iraq, Iran and Norman Finkelstein
2008-06-27President Delivers "State of the Union"
2008-10-26Afghanistan: the neo-Taliban campaign -- What Nato failed to understand
2008-10-11What Went Wrong? Western Impact and Middle Eastern Response
2008-10-11Jihad: The Trail of Political Islam
2008-10-11Turkey: Islamic Secularism or Secular Islam? -- Conversation with Ihsan Dagi
2008-09-20Moscow's moves in Georgia track a script by right-wing prophet
2008-09-17Le Feyt Declaration - Peace in Iraq is an option
2008-09-11International Migration Outlook 2008
2008-08-24Are You Ready for Nuclear War? -- The Mindlessness is Total
2008-08-25The changes in the fight against illegal immigration in the Euro-Mediterranean area and in Euro-Mediterranean relations
2008-08-25The Worldwide Threat 2004: Challenges in a Changing Global Context
2008-08-26The Russian Empire Strikes Back
2008-08-27US assessing possible military aid to Georgia
2009-02-11Renewing American Leadership