Posted by: zanshin, 2007-07-19 12:46

Story

Talk of invasion
Mark Mardell, 2007-07-19 (Thursday), BBC News
For the moment it's Turkish tankers not Turkish tanks that are lining up at the border with Iraq.

A long line of oil and petrol tankers snakes along the Silk Road, through parched fields, towards the mountains and the border crossing at Habur. The drivers are incredibly patient, sitting on little stools outside their vast vehicles in the burning heat and waiting for the boys to come along on rickety tricycles to sell them cold drinks or a glass from the trays of tea. "We are already starving," grumbles one man. "If they invade we will die."

Hang on. Invade Iraq? Hasn't someone already thought of that?

But this is a Turkish threat, and an American fear. The Iraqi foreign minister claims that 140,000 Turkish troops are massing on the border. Many Turkish generals think the government should go in, and so do senior politicians in the main opposition party. The logic is easy. This is Turkey's Kurdish region, where a civil war, a struggle against terrorism, a fight for freedom... you choose the label you wish, but whatever you call it, it's been going on for more than 20 years. Two Turkish soldiers were killed just days ago, by Kurdish fighters.

Plain weird

But the invasion of Iraq changed everything. Almost certainly the most stable part of that country is the Kurdish region right across the border from Turkey. It is not, of course, independent, but has the sort of autonomy many Turkish Kurds can only dream about. Many see the Kurds as the Americans' most important and most loyal allies within Iraq. The Turkish military says the Kurdish guerrillas - the PKK, who have long holed up in the mountains - now operate with impunity from within Iraq itself. The Turkish military see the existence of Kurdistan in Iraq as both an immediate strategic threat and a political one.

The scenery here is entrancing, dramatic and just plain weird. A vast panorama of fawn mountains gives way to a wide river delta. Black shale forms large hillocks like scrunched up velvet. The evening sun light fills the landscape with a golden glow. Geological formations like so many giant axe heads stick out sheer from the rock face. Every few miles there might be a sign of life. A low concrete building with a roof of dried branches, complete with leaves. A little girl pushing a wheel barrow across the road. A checkpoint. The young gendarmes are polite but look hard and don't smile. Reminders that this is a zone of conflict are everywhere.

In the magical landscape, one building stands out: a pagoda atop a hill. Not Shangri La, but the home of the Turkish special forces. But it's just one of many signs of the military presence. Eight-floor barracks houses with their own mosque attached perch on hill tops, behind barbed wire. Tanks poke their guns out from canvas awnings overlooking the Tigris. Civilian minibuses carry soldiers in and out of the area, a miniature armoured car leading the convoy. In fairness, and with the wisdom of driving around for a day, it's a lot less in your face than the British presence used to be in Northern Ireland.

Election issue

But 140,000 troops? It's safe to say that last month did see a fairly large influx of men and machinery but they are now in the military zone where we are not allowed to go.

One local who knows the area well thinks perhaps there are now 60,000 men massed here. But guessing at numbers is fairly pointless. What is certainly the case is that this has been ramped up as an election issue. A stick to beat the ruling AK party with, as too scared to stand up for Turkish interests, too craven to defy the Americans, unwilling to pursue and destroy the terrorists.

I'm not exactly a military expert, but the idea of a land invasion seems fanciful. Surely a few special forces, or air strikes or artillery barrages would do the job better, if there is a job to be done? But talk of invasion does worry the Americans. Not just because it would destabilise the one region of Iraq that could be called almost stable, but because their latest "surge" in Baghdad relies on Kurdish fighters. If these felt their homeland was threatened they might go home, forgetting to drop their American weapons on the way, and leave the surge, well... distinctly un-surgey.

Frightened Americans may be just what the Turks want. Of course, given the fairly fevered election campaign I'm not suggesting any collusion between the government, opposition and the army but it might suit all their interests if the Americans were to be forced to watch more carefully what the Turkish Kurds are getting up to in Iraq. But no amount of slaughter will change the fact that a nearly independent Kurdistan on Turkey's border is a challenge to all involved.

You've made many interesting comments on what I see as the main election issue... I will reply later with some more thoughts of my own.

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Iraq,   Ireland,   Kurdistan,   Kurds,   military,   Oil,   Open-Ended Issues,   PKK,   Terrorism,   Turkey,  

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