Posted by: zanshin, 2007-12-07 10:14

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Jacob's Jottings: NIE Madness
Jacob Heilbrunn, 2007-12-06 (Thursday), National Interest
With the release of the new intelligence estimate debunking the claim that Iran is trying to develop nuclear weapons, the CIA is earning laurels for puncturing the Bush Administration’s alarms about Tehran’s intentions. But is its new report really any more reliable than its original 2005 estimate, which declared that Iran was marching briskly towards attaining nuclear status? A look at the history of CIA estimates suggests that caution is in order. While estimates are only that—not, as is sometimes assumed, ironclad statements—and the difficulties of assessing clandestine programs are obvious, in no area has American intelligence gotten it wrong more often than when it comes to assessing foreign powers’ nuclear prowess.

The CIA’s first blunder established the pattern. In 1946, the CIA’s Office of Reports and Estimates confidently predicted that Stalin’s Soviet Union was years away from producing a bomb: “It is probable that the capability of the USSR to develop weapons based on atomic energy will be limited to the possible development of an atomic bomb to the stage of production at some time between 1950 and 1953. On this assumption, a quantity of such bombs could be produced and stockpiled by 1956.” On August 24, 1949, the office again declared that Stalin would most likely not be able to field an atomic bomb until mid-1953. Five days later, the Soviet Union conducted its first atomic test.

The Office of Reports and Estimates was supposed to prevent a repetition of the blunders and failure to organize intelligence that occurred before Pearl Harbor. Instead, its egregious mistakes, including failing to predict the beginning of the Korean War, meant that it was abolished in 1950. According to CIA historian Donald P. Steury, “it had been the object of repeated investigations, all of which condemned its failures without reservation.”

In the 1950s, the CIA also failed to anticipate how quickly the Soviet Union would detonate a hydrogen bomb. It began to reverse course, perhaps partly as a result of these embarrassments. Where it had previously downplayed Soviet progress, the agency now exaggerated it. Aware that the Soviets were tapping into the expertise of captured German scientists, the CIA concluded that a missile gap existed between the U.S. and the Soviet Union. Soviet premier Nikita Khruschev had claimed, in the wake of the 1957 Sputnik success, that the USSR was producing missiles “like sausages.” The CIA took him at his word. According to Sidney Graybeal, who was a CIA analyst at the time, “the estimates were based on capabilities rather than hard facts.” They were also wrong. After John F. Kennedy became president, satellite photography revealed not only that there wasn’t a missile gap, but that the U.S. was far ahead in the arms race, one reason that the Soviets backed down during the October 1962 Cuban missile crisis.

A new round of contention erupted in the mid-1970s. Neoconservatives, led by Albert Wohlstetter, Richard Pipes and other members of the Committee on the Present Danger, charged that the CIA was tailoring its estimates on behalf of détente and soft-pedaling the size of the Soviet missile force. The famous Team B that challenged the CIA’s Team A charged, in what critics later claimed was an anticipation of the bogus claims made in the run-up to the Gulf War, that the USSR was on the march and that the CIA was all wet. Who got it right? In retrospect, the hawks wildly exaggerated the power and coherence of the Soviet Union, but it does seem clear that the Soviet Union was pouring vastly more resources into the military than the CIA had realized. (In addition, the CIA had rather amusingly concluded in the 1970s that East Germany was one of the top ten economies in the world. It remains an economic basket-case today.)

If the CIA had difficulties judging the Soviet Union, it also badly bungled its assessment of another country’s capabilities. In the 1950s, Israel’s Shimon Peres began dickering with France to obtain nuclear technology. In order to weaken Egypt, then supporting an anti-French insurgency in Algeria, Paris began helping Israel develop nuclear technology. It took the CIA until 1960 to realize that Israel was building a bomb in Dimona. John F. Kennedy successfully pressured Ben-Gurion into allowing a team of Americans to inspect the facility there, but they saw what they wanted to see, being unable to find any evidence that it was something other than a peaceful project. The CIA report on the failure to identify the Dimona project earlier has a familiar ring. It stated: "The general feeling that Israel could not achieve this capability without outside aid from the U.S. or its allies . . . led to the tendency to discount rumors of Israeli reactor construction and French collaboration in the nuclear weapons area."

Then there was India. In 1998 New Delhi conducted three nuclear tests. Once again, the CIA was caught napping. According to the May 18, 1998 Washington Post, “six hours before the tests, no CIA warning was issued because the U.S. analysts responsible for tracking the Indian nuclear program had not expected the tests and were not on alert.” Congress was apoplectic. “Our failure to detect this shows that India did a good job of concealing their intentions, while we did a dreadfully inadequate job of detecting those intentions", said Senator Richard Shelby, then chairman of the Select Committee on Intelligence. In response, the CIA could only state the obvious: "It is apparent that the Indians went to some lengths to conceal their activities and intentions.”

Is it that surprising, then, that the intelligence community has found Iraq and Iran to be so vexing? When it came to Iraq, American intelligence agencies radically underestimated the progress that Saddam Hussein had made before the first Gulf War toward a nuclear bomb. This was one of the reasons that it then reversed course before the second Gulf War, furnishing the Bush Administration with what it wanted in the National Intelligence Estimate released in 2003. That document infamously declared, “We judge that Iraq has continued its weapons of mass destruction (WMD) programs in defiance of UN resolutions and restrictions. Baghdad has chemical and biological weapons as well as missiles with ranges in excess of UN restrictions; if left unchecked, it probably will have a nuclear weapon during this decade.”

Now, in the midst of President Bush’s mutterings about a possible World War III with Tehran, the CIA has performed a somersault on Iran. Opponents of bombing Iran have seized on the latest estimate to discredit Bush, while neoconservatives like Norman Podhoretz splutter that it represents a dastardly CIA plot to undermine Bush. Neoconservative distaste for the CIA is longstanding. It has been voiced by Laurie Mylroie, who believes that Saddam Hussein was behind the first bombing of the World Trade Center; David Frum and Richard Perle, in their book “An End to Evil”, present the CIA as a subversive institution intent on sabotaging the fight against terrorism. In a sense, such inanities signal that neoconservatism, which started out as a Trotskyist movement vociferously opposed to American government institutions, has now come full circle.

Neither the boosters of the new report nor its detractors really have it right. The rapidity with which the CIA has reversed course on Iran should itself induce circumspection. Dealing with Iran diplomatically may well be the best option, but the latest intelligence report shouldn’t serve as the final verdict on its nuclear intentions. Deciding how best to deal with Iran cannot rest on a single estimate that likely represents guesswork and inferences more than verifiable information.

Jacob Heilbrunn is a senior editor at The National Interest.

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Abdul Qadeer Khan,   Algeria,   Bush,   CIA,   Cuba,   David Ben-Gurion,   Egypt,   Energy,   France,   Germany,   India,   Iran,   Iraq,   Israel,   John F Kennedy,   Korean War,   military,   NIE,   Nikita Khrushchev,   Norman Podhoretz,   Nuclear Proliferation,   Nuclear Weapons,   Pakistan,   Shimon Peres,   Soviet Union,   Stalin,   Terrorism,   USA,   WMD,  

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2007-07-18Prediction: Bush, Cheney NOT Leaving Office After 2008 Election
2007-07-24Withdrawal is not an option
2007-06-18Israel-Lebanon conflict - timeline of events
2007-06-19George Soros – Bush America needs de-Nazification
2007-06-22Rice Talks With Journal's Editorial Board
2007-05-15Inspectors Cite Big Gain by Iran on Nuclear Fuel
2007-05-17300: Proto-Fascism and Manufacturing of Complicity
2007-05-22We're Number One! America Leads the World in War Profits
2007-05-03National Security Briefing == Presented to then-Governor Bush
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: East Asia and Pacific Overview
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 4 -- The Global Challenge of WMD Terrorism
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: Western Hemisphere Overview
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Briefing on Release of 2006
2007-05-02President Bush Meets with EU Leaders -- 2007 U.S.-EU Summit
2007-05-10Six Nightmares: Real Threats in a Dangerous World and How America Can Meet Them
2007-06-07US missiles hit Russia where it hurts
2007-06-12Timeline of the Iraq Uranium Imbroglio
2007-06-12Singing CAIR’s Tune, On Your Dime
2007-06-16Strategy on Iran Stirs New Debate at White House
2007-06-16The Osama Files
2007-06-16African Gothic
2007-05-28Podhoretz: Bush to Bomb Iran Before Leaving Office
2007-05-28Unrepentant Neocon - Norman Podhoretz stands IV-square for the Bush doctrine
2007-06-05President Bush Visits Prague, Czech Republic, Discusses Freedom
2007-06-06G8: Issues and controversies
2007-06-02Gates vows not to forget Asian security interests
2008-06-25Shackled Warrior -- Israel in bondage -- An NRO Q&A
2008-06-24The Iran Trap
2008-07-02The Story Behind George Bush's Lies -- What Scott McClellan (and Jay Rockefeller) Didn't Tell Us
2008-07-07Bush and bin Laden
2008-07-10Is It Jaw-Jaw or War-War?
2008-07-10Why We Went to War in Iraq
2008-07-22The Failed States Index 2008
2008-06-04A Peaceful Resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
2008-06-01German Spy Chief Warns of Al-Qaida's Growing Strength in North Africa -- 'JIHAD ON OUR DOORSTEP'
2008-06-02Atomic Market: What Benazir knew
2008-05-26The Failed States Index 2007
2008-05-31Decoding the U.S. National Intelligence Estimate on Iran's Nuclear Weapons Program
2008-05-31Israel at Sixty: Asymmetry, Vulnerability, and the Search for Security
2008-06-13Big powers to offer Iran "generous" deal
2008-06-18The Future of American Power -- How America Can Survive the Rise of the Rest
2008-06-08The Operator: The Double Life of a Military Strategist
2008-06-11Analysis: Growing talk of Iran attack
2008-04-05Architect of War(s)
2008-04-07Famine, food and fertilizer
2008-04-10Eretz Israel HaShlema / Greater Israel
2008-04-10Imperial Israel: The Nile-to-Euphrates Calumny
2008-04-23Religious Extremism: Muslim Challenge And Islamic Response
2008-05-17The world health report 2007 : a safer future : global public health security in the 21st century.
2008-05-18Forget Iran and North Korea—Worry Instead About Russia and Pakistan
2008-05-21The Real World: OPEC, Master of Universe
2008-03-24It Wasn't On Oprah or Fox News -- How Could Hillary Have Known?
2008-03-15Russia throws a wrench in NATO's works
2008-03-05The radical dawa in transition -- The rise of Islamic neoradicalism in the Netherlands
2008-02-29The new wars of religion
2008-03-02The world as Shakespearean tragedy
2008-02-29Islamist Bubbles -- Beware the light at the end of the Islamist tunnel
2008-08-06Nothing Succeeds Like Success
2008-08-06Douglas Feith's War and Decision: Life in a Neocon's Parallel Universe
2008-08-01The Democrats & National Security
2008-07-27America, Iran and faulty intelligence: Bernd Debusmann
2008-07-28The Geopolitics of Iran: Holding the Center of a Mountain Fortress
2008-07-28Reflections on Leadership
2008-07-29Does the Constitution Require the Impeachment of Bush and Cheney?
2008-07-30Acts of War
2008-08-12The Myth of Grass-Roots Terrorism -- Why Osama bin Laden Still Matters
2007-12-12Iran: The wrong options on the table
2007-12-12The real goal of Annapolis
2007-12-29Has the Iraq War Made Us Safer?