Posted by: zanshin, 2008-06-23 12:17

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How Should the Middle East Invest Its Oil Profits? -- America's Free Lunch is Over
MICHAEL HUDSON, 2008-06-23 (Monday), CounterPunch
Every week Mid-Eastern countries acquire more dollars in payment for their oil and other exports, and also for rising U.S. investment in their stock markets and other property. This confronts them with a problem: What can they do with these dollars?

Traditionally, exporters have saved their export earnings by building up their assets. But is it still realistic for them to acquire more dollarized assets?

Central banks throughout the world presently hold some $2.5 trillion of U.S. Treasury bonds, and another trillion dollars in private-sector U.S. dollar debt. As the dollar’s exchange rate falls, these banks suffer losses when their holdings are denominated in their own currencies. Even more serious, the principal itself is now in question. There is no foreseeable way in which the United States can redeem its foreign debt. Its trade surplus continues to deteriorate, while its foreign military spending adds to the overall balance-of-payments deficit.

This means that the United States is pumping more and more dollars into the rest of the world without any means of repaying them – or any intention to do so. That is why foreign countries are beginning to treat these dollars as “hot potatoes,” trying to get rid of them as fast as they can.

But how can they all do this? China is using its new dollar inflows to try and buy up foreign raw materials assets, land and other assets needed for its long-term growth. And some Middle Eastern countries are buying long-term supply agreements for food and raw materials produced abroad. But fewer countries are eager to accept these dollars. And the U.S. Government is blocking foreign investment in the most desirable and remunerative domestic U.S. sectors as its politicians become more nationalistic. This threatens to limit foreign investment in the United States to the junk-mortgage market, to real estate that is falling in price, and loans to bail out U.S. banks and financial institutions as they fight off insolvency and their stock-market prices plunge. Middle East purchases of Citibank shares last year are the most notorious example.

This means that Middle Eastern oil exporters – and indeed, European industrial exporters – are in effect giving their oil and other products away to U.S. consumers in exchange for paper IOUs that are in danger of becoming unspendable and hence worthless.

Fortunately there is a better alternative. That is for Middle Eastern governments to invest their export earnings in building up their own economies rather than that of the United States and those of other dollar-area countries. Two thousand years ago, even during the high tide of Greece and the Roman Empire, the Middle East had long been the world’s most entrepreneurial and prosperous region. What is stopping it from reclaiming this historic position?

A major problem is its arid desertification. This problem can be largely overcome by a combination of domestic infrastructure spending and long term international barter deals. Such deals are the indicated way to go when major currency markets become unstable – and it looks like exchange rates are going to keep on zigzagging and spiking over the coming decade or so.

There is a striking parallel with the last time the Middle East began to receive sharply higher export earnings, after 1973. Back then, it arranged oil-for-infrastructure deals with Korean, Japanese and other Asian firms to build roads, hospitals and other construction needed to raise productivity and living standards. Today, China has entered the mix. And there is still a long way to go for investment in the array of public and private services that are needed to make the region one of the world’s most prosperous.

The emergence of India, China and Pakistan as economic and even military powers (at least for defensive purposes), as well as Russia and Central Asia, already has led to creation of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization, which Iran already has joined. The world is becoming multi-polar, if only as a defensive response to U.S. attempts to give NATO a post-Cold-War role by extending it into the Middle East, Indian and Pacific regions.

Inasmuch as Asia and India promise to emerge as the world’s major industrial centers – perhaps joined by South America’s leading nations – this economic realignment is inherently political in character. To speak bluntly, the United States opposes it as threatening its desire for unilateral hegemony. And bluntly is just how British Brigadier-General James Ellery CBE spoke on April 22 at the School of Oriental & African Studies (SOAS) in London. He described the U.S.-British Iraq War as having been fought to stop “the tide of Easternisation” – a shift in global political and economic power toward China and India, which together import some “two thirds of the Middle East’s oil.”

General Ellery is in a position to know. He was the Foreign Office's Senior Adviser to the Coalition Provisional Authority in Baghdad after 2003. In his talk he explained that U.S. global strategists were concerned that in response to the U.S. economic sanctions against Iraq, it – like Iran – might turn its economic focus eastward.

This is the U.S. nightmare, because it has used the Middle East as a piggy bank to bail out the weakening American financial economy. After the first grain-and-oil shock in 1972-73 – when the United States quadrupled grain export prices, and OPEC responded by quadrupling oil prices – U.S. Treasury officials told Middle Eastern rulers that they could charge as much as they wanted for oil (thus providing domestic U.S. oil majors with a price umbrella that enriched their coffers), but that if they did not recycle their export earnings to the United States, this would be viewed as an act of war.

This means that for the Middle East to use its export earnings to develop its own economies may require breaking with the U.S. diplomatic sphere. At the very least it gives the region an interest in getting the United States to end its occupation of Iraq – including the military bases it is now in the process of constructing.

So I have a modest proposal for how to negotiate this quantum change in Middle Eastern-U.S. geopolitics: Offer to buy out the U.S. bases under construction, perhaps including the Green Zone buildup, at fair market value (certainly not at the exorbitant prices that Republican campaign contributors have been paid, with contracts that both the United Nations and the U.S. Congressional Budget office have found to have been corrupt and handled with improper oversight). This can best be done by making clear to the United States that the free lunch it obtained after going off gold in 1971 is over.

This may sound like giving the United States its way in what looks like a protection racket. But protection may be well worth buying under today’s conditions.

Two centuries ago the United States announced the Monroe Doctrine: Europe should leave the Western Hemisphere to U.S. as a sphere of influence. Is it not time for the world to act symmetrically and ask that the United States for its part leave the Eastern Hemisphere to that region’s nations, to develop as they wish in peace?

The more publicly the Middle Eastern countries can make this kind of trade-off, the more chance it has of being adopted as a policy plank in this year’ U.S. presidential campaign.

This article is reprinted from The Gulf (a Bahrain news-weekly)

Michael Hudson is a former Wall Street economist specializing in the balance of payments and real estate at the Chase Manhattan Bank (now JPMorgan Chase & Co.), Arthur Anderson, and later at the Hudson Institute (no relation). In 1990 he helped established the world’s first sovereign debt fund for Scudder Stevens & Clark. Dr. Hudson was Dennis Kucinich’s Chief Economic Advisor in the recent Democratic primary presidential campaign, and has advised the U.S., Canadian, Mexican and Latvian governments, as well as the United Nations Institute for Training and Research (UNITAR). A Distinguished Research Professor at University of Missouri, Kansas City (UMKC), he is the author of many books, including Super Imperialism: The Economic Strategy of American Empire (new ed., Pluto Press, 2002)

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Asia,   Bahrain,   China,   Desertification,   Economy,   empire,   Europe,   Geopolitics,   Gold,   Greece,   India,   Iran,   Iraq,   Michael Hudson,   military,   NATO,   Oil,   OPEC,   Pakistan,   Russia,   Shanghai,   Sovereign Wealth Funds,   USA,  

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2007-02-19Chomsky on Iran, Iraq, and the Rest of the World
2007-02-20Transformational Diplomacy
2007-02-20Russia's hudna with the Muslim world
2007-02-26Which Will It Be America, Empire or Democracy?
2007-03-10Regime change is the reason, disarmament the excuse: An interview with Scott Ritter
2007-03-01The “White” al-Qaeda and the Future of Europe
2007-01-24President Bush’s State of the Union Address
2007-01-09Despite their shoddy track record on Iraq analysis, O'Reilly trusts only "my military analysts
2007-10-10India's Tough Choice on Iran
2007-10-16What is driving oil prices so high?
2007-09-28Voices From Afar: The Times are Changing for Europe
2007-09-27Washington Sees an Opportunity on Iran
2007-10-04Open Fire
2007-09-21Why Capitalism Needs Terror: An Interview with Naomi Klein
2007-09-11Lessons from the Bloc
2007-12-02The Smart Way to Beat Tyrants Like Chavez
2007-11-29Oil Producers See the World and Buy It Up
2007-11-21Wars to Watch Out For
2007-11-22The United States’ new backyard
2007-11-16The Crisis Of Pakistan: A Dangerously Weak State
2007-11-19The Economic Tsunami -- Coming Sooner Than You Think
2007-11-10The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones
2007-11-08Why Are Crude Oil Prices So High?
2007-11-12IRAN AND WEAPONS OF MASS DESTRUCTION
2007-10-20The Coming Civil War In Mexico
2007-10-18'Many in the US Military Think Bush and Cheney Are Out of Control'
2007-11-04The Coming Economic Collapse by Dr Stephen Leeb -- Book Review
2007-10-31After the end of empire -- The sun sets early on the American Century
2007-11-02Vice President's Remarks to the Heritage Foundation
2008-01-10Daughter of the West
2008-01-06Afghanistan and the Future of NATO
2007-12-29Globalization and Cultural Encounters
2007-12-29European Union-Russia summit a diplomatic debacle
2007-12-28How Pakistan Works
2007-12-22PRESIDENT WILLIAM J. CLINTON STATE OF THE UNION ADDRESS
2007-12-18Time for smart power
2007-12-10Timeline: the al-Qaida tapes
2007-12-07A smart side to US intelligence
2008-02-06The 2007 Irving Kristol Lecture by Bernard Lewis
2008-01-31The Power Elite's Use Of Wars And Crises
2008-01-31THE NEW WORLD ORDER' -- A Critique and Chronology
2008-02-02A Statesman Without Borders
2008-01-23Balochistan & the New World Order
2008-01-15Bush wants OPEC to increase oil output
2008-03-03President Addresses Joint Armed Forces Officers' Wives' Luncheon
2008-03-03Mead: Bush Administration Gets Improving ‘Grades’ in First Year of Second Term’s Foreign Policy
2008-02-23The Two Faces of Saudi Arabia
2008-02-22Three blind men confront the elephant that is this globalization era’s radical extremist reaction--and surprise! They all see a different beast!
2008-03-19The new liberal imperialism
2008-03-23Dissecting the Danish Cartoon Controversy
2008-03-05The radical dawa in transition -- The rise of Islamic neoradicalism in the Netherlands
2008-03-16Bush is an idiot, but he was right about Saddam
2008-05-26The Failed States Index 2007
2008-06-01Why NATO Troops Can't Deliver Peace in Afghanistan
2008-06-06Stumbling toward Eurabia
2008-06-04A Peaceful Resolution of the Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
2008-05-14The Other Guantanamo
2008-05-14NATO at a Crossroads
2008-04-07Famine, food and fertilizer
2008-07-15A war waiting to happen
2008-07-09Shackled Warrior
2008-06-30Preparing the Battlefield
2008-06-27President Delivers "State of the Union"
2008-06-25Samson's Fate
2008-06-16The Fall of France and the Multicultural World War
2008-07-31The Med’s moment comes
2008-08-01The Democrats & National Security
2008-08-01Al Gore: A Generational Challenge to Repower America
2008-08-03Attacking Iran? It will not happen
2008-08-11Will Iran Enter the Iraq War?
2008-08-04How The United States Reversed Its Policy On Bombing Civilians
2008-08-14Black Gold Against the Soul -- Book Review