Posted by: zanshin, 2008-07-15 12:39

Story

A war waiting to happen
F William Engdahl, 2008-07-16 (Wednesday), Asia Times
The Caucasus Republic of Georgia, as nations go, is not apparently a major global player. Yet Washington has invested huge sums and organized to put its own despot, Mikhail Saakashvili, in the presidency in order to close a nuclear North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) iron ring around Russia.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice visited the capital Tbilisi and made sharp statements against Moscow for supporting the separatist Georgian states of Abkhazia and South Ossetia, in essence blaming Moscow for an imminent war Washington has incited in order to bring Georgia into NATO by the December NATO summit.

Western media have either tended to ignore the growing tensions in the strategic Caucasus region or to suggest, as Rice does, that the entire conflict is being caused by Moscow's support of the "breakaway" republics of Abkhazia and South Ossetia. In reality, a quite different chess game is being played in the region, one which has the potential to detonate a major escalation of tensions between Moscow and NATO.

The underlying issue is the fact that since the dissolution of the Warsaw Pact in 1991, one after the other former members as well as former states of the USSR have been coaxed and in many cases bribed with false promises by Washington into joining the counter organization, NATO.

Rather than initiate discussions after the 1991 dissolution of the Warsaw Pact about a systematic dissolution of NATO, Washington has systematically converted NATO into what can only be called the military vehicle of an American global imperial rule, linked by a network of military bases from Kosovo to Poland to Turkey to Iraq and Afghanistan.

In 1999, former Warsaw Pact members Hungary, Poland and the Czech Republic joined NATO. Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia followed in March 2004. Now Washington is putting immense pressure on the European Union members of NATO, especially Germany and France, that they vote in December to admit Georgia and Ukraine.

The Georgia-Abkhazia military picture
The present escalation of tensions in the region began in May when Abkhazia said it had shot down two Georgian drones over its airspace. The announcement came two weeks after Georgia accused Russia of shooting down an unmanned drone over Abkhazia, which Tbilisi considers its sovereign territory. Moscow has denied involvement.

Russia has administered a peacekeeping contingent in Abkhazia and South Ossetia since bloody conflicts in the 1990s, and sent additional troops to Abkhazia recently to deter what it calls a planned Georgian military offensive. The two sides, Georgia and Abkhazia, have been in a state of suspended conflict since 1993, when Abkhaz separatists, backed by Russian forces, succeeded in driving the Georgians out of the province.

Tbilisi claims sovereignty over Abkhazia and South Ossetia and refers to both as "breakaway republics". In 2001, Georgian troops joined with anti-Moscow mujahideen-trained Chechyn soldiers from neighboring Russian Muslim province of Chechnya to mount a military attack, unsuccessfully, against Abkhazia.

In an analysis of what a possible military clash, short of nuclear war between Russia and NATO might look like, the Russian government's RIA Novosti military commentator, Ilya Kramnik, laid out the array of forces on both sides. In late 2007, the Georgian armed forces had about 33,000 officers and men, including a 22,000-strong army that comprised five brigades and eight detached battalions. These units had over 200 tanks, including 40 T-55 and 165 T-72 main battle tanks that are currently being overhauled.

Kramnik says that the Georgian military faces a 10,000-strong Abkhazian Self Defense Force with 60 tanks, including 40 T-72s, and 85 artillery pieces and mortars, including several dozen with a 122-152mm caliber and 116 armored vehicles of different types, numerous anti-tank weapons ranging from RPG-7 rocket launchers to Konkurs-M anti-tank guided missiles (ATGMs). The Abkhazian navy has over 20 motor boats armed with machine-guns and small-caliber cannons.

But most decisive, as was shown in the experience of the 1992-1993 Georgian-Abkhazian conflict, even small units can resist superior enemy forces in mountainous areas for a long time. Consequently, the outcome of any hypothetical conflict would depend on the aggressors' level of military training and the influence of third parties, primarily Russian units from the Collective Commonwealth of Independent States Peacekeeping Force. Georgia's armed forces are notoriously corrupt and poorly trained.

Although the United States has trained several crack Georgian units in the past few years, the fighting effectiveness of all other elements is uncertain. There are no trained sergeants, and troop morale is running low. Only about 50% of the military equipment is operational, and coordinated operations in adverse conditions are impossible.

The Abkhazian armed forces pack a more devastating punch because they would resist an aggressor that has already tried to deprive the republic of its independence. And Abkhazian units are commanded by officers trained at Russian military schools. Many of them fought in the early 1990s. Most analysts agree that the combat-ready Abkhazian army does not suffer from corruption. Moscow has recently beefed up the local peace-keeping contingent. Neighboring Caucasus states including North Ossetia side with Abkhazia and are ready to take on Georgia.

Moscow's possible strategy
Moscow has stepped up ties with the two small republics against the backdrop of Georgia's NATO bid and Western recognition of Kosovo's independence from Serbia. Russia, however, has not formally recognized Abkhazia or South Ossetia.

Moscow has long backed Abkhazia's de facto independence however. It has granted Russian citizenship to many of its residents and recently legalized economic ties with the separatist republic. For Russia, the conflict provides a source of leverage on both Abkhazia and Georgia. The more Georgia seeks to distance itself from Russia, the more Russia throws its weight behind Abkhazia.

However, Georgia under Washington's man, strongman President Mikhail Saakashvili - a pretty ruthless dictator as he recently showed against domestic opposition - refuses to back off its provocative NATO bid.

Georgia is also a strategic transit country for the Anglo-American Caspian oil pipeline from Baku in Azerbaijan through Georgia to the Turkish port of Ceyhan. As well, the Baku-Tbilisi-Erzurum gas pipeline has been key to Azerbaijan as an alternative to the control of the Russian state monopoly Transneft in order to convey its oil and gas resources toward the West. The entire Caucasus is part of what can be described as a new Great Game for control of Eurasia between Washington and Russia.

As the Moscow Times sees it, "One way to disrupt Georgia's NATO aspirations would be to heat up the conflict in Abkhazia to a level that would make it unacceptable for the Western alliance, which acts by the consensus of all members, to offer membership. Georgia's leadership could be escalating tensions in hope of prompting Abkhazia and Russia to make a move that would leave the West with no chance but to intervene.

"Regardless of the motivation, whoever is stoking the conflict must realize that they are playing with fire. This brinkmanship can lead to a full-fledged war. Georgia would probably lose a war if Russia backed Abkhazia, while Russia would lose its hope of becoming a benign global player and would risk seriously straining its ties with the European Union and the United States."

Rice adds gasoline to the fire
The George W Bush administration is adding gasoline to the fire in the Caucasus. In Tbilisi on July 10, Rice told the press, "Russia needs to be a part of resolving the problem and solving the problem and not contributing to it. I have said it to the Russians publicly. I have said it privately."

The effect of her comments, blaming Moscow for the escalating tensions, is to signal US support for the Georgia side in their efforts to force Russian troops from South Ossetia and Abkhazia.

In May, Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh said he was willing to conclude a military treaty with Moscow similar to that between the US and Taiwan. "Abkhazia will propose to Russia the signing of a military treaty that would guarantee security to our republic," Bagapsh stated. "We are also prepared to host Russian military bases on our territory within the framework of this treaty. I would like to emphasize that this would not go against the precedents already existing in international practice. For instance, this treaty could be analogous to the treaty between the US and Taiwan."

Just as Moscow refuses to recognize the sovereignty of Kosovo, so Washington refuses to admit the sovereignty of Abkhazia. In May, a senior US State Department delegation was in Abkhazia, meeting with local non-governmental organizations (NGOs)there as well as the president. In the past, from Serbia to Georgia to Ukraine, Washington intelligence agencies have used NGOs, including the George Soros-financed Open Society foundations, the US Congress-financed National Endowment for Democracy, the Central Intelligence Agency-linked Freedom House and Gene Sharp's misleadingly-named Albert Einstein Institution to steer a wave of regime changes which became known as "color revolutions".

In each case, the new regime was pro-Washington and anti-Moscow, as in the case of Saakashvili in Georgia and Viktor Yushchenko in Ukraine. Both countries began seeking NATO entry after the success of the US-financed color revolutions.

In all this, Washington is definitely playing with potential nuclear fire by escalating pressure to push Georgia and Ukraine into NATO. Czech Foreign Minister Karl Schwarzenberg on July 8 signed an agreement allowing US deployment of special radar facilities on Czech soil as part of the top-secret US "missile defense" it alleges is aimed at rogue missile threats from Iran.

As even former US secretary of state Henry Kissinger recently pointed out, the Bush administration's categorical refusal to pursue the 2007 counter-offer of then-president Vladimir Putin to station US radar at the Russian-leased reconnaissance facility in Azerbaijan instead, was a provocative mistake.

It makes abundantly clear that Washington is aiming its military strategy at the dismantling of Russia as a potential adversary. That is a recipe for a possible nuclear war by miscalculation. Rice's latest Caucasus and Czech visit only added to that growing danger.

F William Engdahl is author of the book A Century of War: Anglo-American Oil Politics and the New World Order and is finishing a book, provisionally titled, The New Cold War: Behind the US Drive for Full Spectrum Dominance. He may be reached via his website, www.engdahl.oilgeopolitics.net

(Copyright 2008 Asia Times Online (Holdings) Ltd

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Tags

Abkhazia,   Afghanistan,   Asia,   Azerbaijan,   Bulgaria,   Bush,   Caspian,   Caucasus,   Chechnya,   Civil War,   Condoleezza Rice,   Corruption,   Czech Republic,   democracy,   Estonia,   EU,   Eurasia,   France,   Geopolitics,   Georgia,   Germany,   Hungary,   Iran,   Iraq,   iron,   KGI Missile Shield,   Kosovo,   Latvia,   Lithuania,   Mikheil Saakashvili,   military,   Muslims,   NATO,   Oil,   Open-Ended Issues,   Poland,   Politics,   Putin,   Romania,   Russia,   Serbia,   Sergei Bagapsh,   Slovakia,   Slovenia,   South Ossetia,   Taiwan,   Transneft,   Turkey,   Ukraine,   USA,  

Related statements

Date  
2008-07-08 Czech Foreign Minister Karl Schwarzenberg signed an agreement allowing US deployment of special radar facilities on Czech soil as part of the top-secret US "missile defense" it alleges is aimed at rogue missile threats from Iran.
2007-07-10 "Russia needs to be a part of resolving the problem and solving the problem and not contributing to it. I have said it to the Russians publicly. I have said it privately."
-- Condoleezza Rice, told the press in Tbilisi, Georgia
2007-05 Abkhaz President Sergei Bagapsh is willing to conclude a military treaty with Moscow
In Abkhazia, President Sergei Bagapsh said he was willing to conclude a military treaty with Moscow similar to that between the US and Taiwan.

"Abkhazia will propose to Russia the signing of a military treaty that would guarantee security to our republic.
We are also prepared to host Russian military bases on our territory within the framework of this treaty. I would like to emphasize that this would not go against the precedents already existing in international practice. For instance, this treaty could be analogous to the treaty between the US and Taiwan."
2004-03-29 Bulgaria, Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia formally welcomed in Washington as new members of the NATO.
2002-11 Lithuania, Estonia, Latvia, Bulgaria, Romania, Slovakia and Slovenia are formally invited to join Nato at summit in Prague.
2001 Georgian troops joined with anti-Moscow mujahideen-trained Chechyn soldiers from neighboring Russian Muslim province of Chechnya to mount a military attack, unsuccessfully, against Abkhazia.
1999 The Czech Republic, Hungary and Poland become the first former Soviet bloc states to join Nato, taking the alliance's borders some 400 miles towards Russia.
1993 Abkhaz separatists, backed by Russian forces, succeeded in driving the Georgians out of the province.
NATO becomes involved in the armed conflict (= Civil War) between Georgia and Abkhazia
Georgia recognizes the independence of Abkhazia
Georgia and Abkhazia have an armed conflict (= Civil War)
Georgia becomes member of NATO
Georgia becomes member of NATO
Ukraine becomes member of the NATO
Ukraine becomes member of the EU
Russia and Georgia have tense relations
Georgia will become a member of the EU

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2006-09-09Foreign policy year in review
2006-05-01THE SO-CALLED EVIDENCE IS A FARCE: FORMER GREEN BERET SAYS BUSH IS LYING
2006-10-13Interview Vali Nasr
2006-10-18The Clash of Cultures and American Hegemony
2006-11-07MAGHREB REGIME SCENARIOS
2008-08-26Russia recognizes Georgia rebel regions
2008-08-21The Breaking Point -- A New Age of Torture
2008-08-27The new geopolitics of crude oil
2008-08-12Russia, France announce formula to end Georgia fighting
2008-08-04Intensify the witch-hunt -- Making us safer is not the aim
2008-08-07Brzezinski’s bunker
2008-08-01The Democrats & National Security
2008-05-03Pentagon Considers Adding Forces in Afghanistan
2008-04-24A Dissenter’s Guide to Foreign Policy
2008-06-27The Wrong War -- Why We Lost in Vietnam -- Chapter One
2008-03-23Future Human Evolution -- Eugenics in the Twenty-First Century
2008-03-05The radical dawa in transition -- The rise of Islamic neoradicalism in the Netherlands
2008-02-08Assessing the Islamist Threat, Circa 1946
2007-09-30Many Czechs Love U.S., but Say ‘Hold the Radar’
2007-11-12Stabbed in the back! The past and future of a right-wing myth
2007-11-12FETHULLAH GULEN AND HIS LIBERAL "TURKISH ISLAM" MOVEMENT
2007-11-07Blood borders -- How a better Middle East would look
2007-10-23Roundtable Discussion on Missile Defense and Other Issues
2007-10-29Putin Denounces U.S. Missile Shield
2007-10-17Iran: Nuclear programme
2007-10-04NATO chief: no nation can veto Georgian NATO bid
2008-01-31THE NEW WORLD ORDER' -- A Critique and Chronology
2008-01-29THE WAR ON TERROR: FOUR YEARS ON; Taking Stock Of the Forever War
2008-02-02A Better Way to Grow NATO
2008-01-23Surge to Nowhere
2008-01-15The conflicts in Abkhazia, South Ossetia and Nagorny Karabakh hang like the “sword of Damocles”
2008-01-11Turkey Talk
2008-01-08Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer Announces Top Risks and Red Herrings for 2008
2007-12-22Bush/Gore Second Presidential Debate October 11
2007-12-18Time for smart power
2007-12-15Kosovo’s Independence Will Stir Up Trouble. Who Will Benefit?
2007-12-02Follow the drugs: US shown the way
2007-11-16The Crisis Of Pakistan: A Dangerously Weak State
2008-11-12Bulgarian corruption troubling the European Union
2008-11-26Pipelines, politics and power -- The future of EU-Russia energy relations -- Introduction
2008-12-27Barack Obama: The Naked Emperor
2008-12-13Getting Away with Torture?
2008-10-12Operation Sarkozy : how the CIA placed one of its agents at the presidency of the French Republic
2008-10-24Albania, Croatia NATO accession protocols signed
2008-10-26Afghanistan: the neo-Taliban campaign -- What Nato failed to understand
2008-10-02U.S. Not Winning War on Terror -- Special Report
2008-09-13Western Migration to Eastern and Central Europe
2008-09-20Moscow's moves in Georgia track a script by right-wing prophet
2009-01-18New European gas sources still a pipe dream
2009-02-11Renewing American Leadership
2009-02-08One on One: 'With no likelihood of US use of force, that leaves Israel'
2009-03-18Will Obama repeat Bush's mistakes in Central Asia?
2006-11-22EU invitation to Putin 'diplomatic blunder'
2006-11-22U.s. Foreign Policy In Central Asia: Time For Change?
2006-11-24THE KREMLIN MINUTES - Diary of a Collapsing Superpower
2006-11-26Latvia's pride over Nato summit
2006-10-13Regional Implications of Shi‘a
2006-10-04Poor Strategy, the Elections and Ukraine’s NATO Ambitions
2006-09-29China -- PART 2: Tequila trap beckons China
2006-08-24US administration balances between love for Putin and democracy
2006-09-12New Glory
2006-09-03Transcript - President Bush's Speech
2007-03-15Highbrow Tribalism
2007-03-15The Jihad Genocide of the Armenians
2007-04-02Reaction From Around the World
2007-04-15History’s Biggest Invasion
2007-04-14War? You must be joking
2007-01-25MIDDLE EAST - Timeline of recent developments
2007-02-20Transformational Diplomacy
2006-12-17Baku Banks On Independent Energy Policy
2006-12-30EU Rolls Out Welcome Mat for Two Countries, Yanks It From Rest
2006-12-31The Dutch news in 2006 - Part II
2007-01-05Analysis: Can Merkel fix the EU?
2006-12-18“Osama’s Dream”
2006-12-15The Israel Lobby
2006-12-02Oceans apart
2006-12-03Baghdad Year Zero - Pillaging Iraq in pursuit of a neocon utopia
2007-05-31The Case for Bombing Iran
2007-06-01The Importance of Being Lucid
2007-05-17300: Proto-Fascism and Manufacturing of Complicity
2007-05-22Statements made by Democratic leaders about Saddam Hussein's acquisition or possession of WMD
2007-05-22We're Number One! America Leads the World in War Profits
2007-05-10A Reporter At Large: In The Party Of God (Part II)
2007-05-11Putin Is Said to Compare U.S. Policies to Third Reich
2007-05-10Six Nightmares: Real Threats in a Dangerous World and How America Can Meet Them
2007-05-14Rice sees no new Cold War with Russia
2007-05-15The New Demographic Balance in Europe and its Consequences
2007-04-26Putin hawkish in final state-of-nation address
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: East Asia and Pacific Overview
2007-07-15“Two States Or One State” -- Debate by Uri Avnery & Ilan Pappe
2007-07-16Cheney pushes Bush to act on Iran
2007-07-16Will Iran Be Next?
2007-07-02Zionist Plan for the Middle East
2007-07-04Renewing American Leadership
2007-07-08The Road Home - Editorial
2007-07-09Interview transcript: David Miliband
2007-06-24Antimissile defence's real purpose: political integration more than military protection
2007-06-28Russia's tango with Tehran
2007-06-18Israel-Lebanon conflict - timeline of events
2007-08-14The virtues of the Mediterranean union
2007-11-13The Deadly Embrace
2007-11-20Whose War?
2007-12-10Bin Laden Attempting to Strip U.S. Allies from Anti-Terrorism Coalition
2007-12-22Gates: Gulf nations must confront Iran
2007-12-20Press Conference by the President
2007-12-28The Kurdish Policy Imperative
2008-01-10Daughter of the West
2007-12-29A World of Problems . . .
2008-01-21Strategic Communication
2008-02-04Arming the Middle East
2008-02-06The 2007 Irving Kristol Lecture by Bernard Lewis
2008-02-08The Fallacy of Grievance-based Terrorism
2008-01-28APPEAL TO ALLIES
2008-01-25Serbian victory for Putin and Russia Inc
2007-10-12Rice, Gates tackle missile defence, Iran in Moscow talks
2007-10-23Torture in the Name of Freedom
2007-10-23Q&A: US missile defence
2007-10-22The Secret History of the Impending War with Iran That the White House Doesn't Want You to Know
2007-11-04U.S. gets a first look at Russian radar
2007-09-28The Mega-Lie Called the "War on Terror": A Masterpiece of Propaganda
2007-09-25Distorting Desire
2007-09-08Knowing the Enemy
2007-08-24Why Russia Fears Transatlantic Missile Defense
2007-08-27Sarkozy calls for troop exit from Iraq
2007-08-29President Bush Addresses the 89th Annual National Convention of the American Legion
2008-02-23The Two Faces of Saudi Arabia
2008-03-10God’s Country
2008-03-14Aims and Methods of Europe's Muslim Brotherhood
2008-03-24Globalization And The Development Of Underdevelopment Of The Third World
2008-04-04THE HYSTORY OF FREEMASONRY IN TURKEY
2008-04-01Bush gives support to Ukraine’s Nato bid
2008-04-10Imperial Israel: The Nile-to-Euphrates Calumny
2008-06-30Preparing the Battlefield
2008-04-29The Man Between War and Peace
2008-05-17The world health report 2007 : a safer future : global public health security in the 21st century.
2008-08-10Russia, Georgia clash in breakaway statelet
2008-08-09Chasing a Mirage
2008-08-14EU wants peacekeepers 'on the ground' in Georgia
2008-08-27US assessing possible military aid to Georgia
2008-08-27How to Manage Moscow
2008-08-27US, Russia anchor military ships in Georgian ports
2008-08-28Vice President's Remarks on the 90th National Convention of the American Legion
2008-08-29The Failed European Constitution and US Interests
2008-09-02Can The War On Terror Be Won? -- How To Fight The Right War
2008-08-20Russophobia: A Political Pathology
2008-08-23Israel backs Georgia in Caspian Oil Pipeline Battle with Russia
2008-07-27America, Iran and faulty intelligence: Bernd Debusmann
2008-07-28Rome Diary: Italy's Leap Into The Dark
2008-07-28Reflections on Leadership
2008-09-04Cheney says Russia actions illegitimate
2009-03-01U.S. to develop missile shield in Europe, consult Russia - Biden
2009-01-19This war on terrorism is bogus
2009-02-02Freedom Beats A Global Retreat
2009-02-01Preventing and Resolving Deadly Conflict: What Have We Learned?,
2009-05-10Country Reports on Terrorism 2008 -- Chapter 2. Country Reports: Middle East and North Africa Overview
2009-04-19CIS official: No reason uneasy about NATO's drills in Georgia
2009-07-19Nabucco not serious rival to Russian gas pipe projects - Zubkov
2009-07-07President Barack Obama???s Moscow speech
2008-09-19US-Russia in war of words over missile shield deal