Posted by: zanshin, 2008-07-16 10:02

Story

Nations with vast oil wealth gaining clout
Megan K. Stack and Borzou Daragahi, 2008-07-16 (Wednesday), LA Times
Some autocratic governments are challenging U.S. policies and silencing domestic dissent. But their increased spending raises the risk of inflation, which could erode popular support.


MOSCOW — The boom in world oil prices is bolstering autocratic governments in a handful of petroleum-rich countries, emboldening them to challenge U.S. objectives and weakening their own democratic movements.

The cost of a barrel of oil has climbed dizzyingly, from $80 in September to more than $147, before settling Wednesday at $134.60. Some analysts expect it to continue rising to $200. The effects are visible across the globe:

Iraq's warring factions are scrapping for a share of the massive oil wealth. The Sudanese government has more money to spend on military equipment and the campaign against rebels in Darfur. Saudi Arabia has grown more distant from its allies in Washington.

But some of the most obvious effects are in countries whose leaders are most hostile to the United States: Venezuela's populist President Hugo Chavez; stringent Islamic rulers in Iran and Russia's growing autocracy.

The governments of these three countries, among the top eight in proven reserves, are demanding a greater role in world affairs while spending on domestic social programs, raising salaries and building infrastructure -- measures that help blunt concerns over a slide into greater authoritarianism.

"You have no control from society or opposition or the state or anybody," said Grigory Yavlinsky, a Russian economist and leader of the opposition Yabloko party. "So it's easy to use this money to support your popularity."

But vast oil wealth comes with risks. All three countries are struggling with inflation, which might slowly erode popular support.

In Russia, public spending doubled from 2004 to 2007. Oil and gas revenues are expected to surpass $178 billion in 2008, nearly $33 billion more than originally projected. The International Monetary Fund, wary of inflation, has warned Russia against rampant spending.

Inflation in Iran has aggravated a devaluation of the currency.

Political changes wrought by the oil windfall also may backfire. Venezuela's output is declining in part because skilled engineers and foreign companies are fleeing. Analysts say sanctions, brain drain and dearth of foreign investment have badly hurt Iran's potential output because of a lack of modern techniques.

For now, however, all three are riding high on oil revenue.

"This is perhaps the largest shift of wealth and resources in the history of the world economy," said Andrei Illarionov, who was an economic advisor to former Russian President Vladimir Putin and is now a senior fellow at the Cato Institute. "This money happens to be a kind of windfall profit for these countries, compensating for failures in other areas."

A nine-year run of growing oil revenue has restored Russia to a strength it hasn't experienced since the Soviet heyday. No longer a broken country fumbling for footing, Russia is now a major player on the world stage.

Ten years ago, Russia was swamped with debt. Today, it sits on the world's third-largest monetary reserves, topped only by China and Japan.

The government has unveiled popular initiatives to boost pensions and improve benefits for veterans. New President Dmitry Medvedev promised to focus on socioeconomic woes that beset ordinary Russians.

Meanwhile, Moscow has become increasingly aggressive toward Western-leaning former Soviet states, imposing a blockade on Georgia and engaging in a dispute with Ukraine over the pricing of natural gas.

Putin has sparred with the United States over NATO expansion; U.S. plans to install missile defense radar and rockets in Poland and the Czech Republic; and recognition of Kosovo's independence.

Russia has also boosted ties with Iran, building a nuclear power plant in the Iranian city of Bushehr and providing nuclear fuel -- even as Iran's nuclear program has emerged as a source of acrimony with the West.

Medvedev recently charged that incompetence and arrogance by Washington and U.S. businesses have provoked a global economic crisis.

"It was the disconnect between the formal role played by the United States of America in the world economic system and its actual capabilities that was one of the main reasons for the current crisis," Medvedev told political and business leaders gathered for the St. Petersburg International Economic Forum.

"Russia today is a global player," Medvedev said. "We must recognize its responsibility for shaping the destiny of the world."

Russians have embraced this vision, and Putin and Medvedev enjoy strong popularity. But the country also suffers from rampant corruption and a focus on quick profits. Independent media have been squashed and dissent is being silenced. Beyond the new class of super-rich nourished by oil and gas prices, widespread poverty lingers.

And in the first four months of 2008, oil output decreased 1.5% compared with the same period in 2007. There are fears that rising costs and aging fields mean output could decrease this year for the first time in a decade.

Iran too has experienced an increase in clout and a weakening of democracy as the price of oil has risen. The Islamic Republic has been able to simultaneously expand its influence, bolster military capability and suppress dissent.

Since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, the price per barrel has played a critical role in determining the tone of relations between the U.S. and Iran, which is heavily dependent on energy exports to finance its gigantic public sector, its military and its foreign allies.

In the 1990s, with oil prices bottoming out and foreign debt piling up, Iran was forced to moderate its domestic and international policies to attract European investment and trade with Persian Gulf states.

With oil at an inflation-adjusted $24 a barrel and dropping, reformist Mohammad Khatami was elected president with a mandate to make Iran a more open country.

But by 2002, with oil at $27 and rising, analysts detected a drift toward greater authoritarianism, including a broad crackdown on the independent press, arrests of political dissidents and Khatami's entourage.

With oil at $55 a barrel, conservative President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad ascended to power in 2005. Record oil prices have enabled Ahmadinejad to offer low-interest loans or food coupons to government supporters, launch infrastructure projects and import large amounts of food to keep commodity prices low. Meanwhile, journalists, activists and bloggers are silenced by intimidation or jailing.

Tehran earned more from oil money in May 2008 than it did in all of 1998, the height of Khatami's power.

Iran's nuclear program has become one of the major foreign policy worries of the Bush administration and Israel, as well as a grave concern for Europe and the Arab world.

Iranian backing for militant groups in the Palestinian territories and Lebanon did not begin with the oil boom. But its strong role in Iraq, along with the rapid expansion of its uranium enrichment program over the last two years, did.

"You can't attribute that entirely to higher oil prices," said Paul Sampson, a London-based analyst for Energy Intelligence, a trade publisher that covers the oil and gas industries. "[But] the fact is that the hard-liners have become more entrenched because they have this constant stream of oil revenue."

"As a general rule in Iran, the increase of oil price has disproportional relationship to democratization," said Said Laylaz, a Tehran economist. "The higher the price, the less democratic society. . . . The government has been emboldened to control everything."

High oil prices have also shielded Iran from the effects of sanctions over its nuclear program.

"If you took Iran's oil off the market, that would bring the international economy to its knees," Sampson said. "Iran knows that."

In Venezuela, the Central Bank reports that oil revenue for the first quarter of this year was $20 billion, up 60% from the first three months of last year.

Chavez has channeled much of the oil bonanza into programs for the poor. But observers worry that the windfall is encouraging his autocratic tendencies, and that Chavez is using the cash to finance an arms buildup and an anti-U.S. policy initiative.

Others predict that in a country where 70% of economic output is directly related to oil, his economic model will crash if and when prices fall.

Growth is evident everywhere in Venezuela, in the shopping malls where consumers snap up clothing, whiskey and electronics, and on the streets where traffic jams tell of a 47% increase in car sales last year.

For now, it matters little that production has sharply declined over the last five years due to the flight of home-grown professionals and the foreign companies with the most expertise in dealing with Venezuela's difficult-to-handle heavy oil.

But some say rising oil prices mask economic troubles to come.

Gustavo Garcia, an economist at a Caracas think tank and graduate school known by its initials, IESA, said growth such as Venezuela's that is based on high oil prices cannot be maintained indefinitely.

"In the medium term, when these prices return to normal levels, the economy will be subject to a traumatic adjustment," he said. "We are repeating cycles of past of economic expansions that were based on oil booms that aren't sustainable."

Copyright 2008 Los Angeles Times

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2007-09-02Remarks By The President At 2002 Graduation Exercise Of The United States Military Academy
2007-09-06Excerpts from an interview with Lee Kuan Yew
2007-09-24Betrayed -- The Iraqis who trusted America the most
2007-09-27Washington Sees an Opportunity on Iran
2007-11-23Power, passion, and neoliberalism
2007-11-21Iran: As One Door Closes In Nuclear Dispute, Others Open
2007-12-10Bilderberg 2007: Welcome to the Lunatic Fringe
2007-12-13Crisis of Faith in the Muslim World
2007-12-22Iran - Nuclear Chronology - 2006
2008-01-08The Manama Dialogue: Gulf security and Turkey
2008-01-02How to Defuse Iran
2008-01-02Turkish accession to the European union: challenges and opportunities
2008-01-11The $1.4 Trillion Question
2009-02-12Obama’s Prime-Time Press Briefing -- Transcript
2009-03-21The First-World Debt Crisis In Global Perspective
2009-04-15"We can be a benevolent superpower", interview with Jimmy Carter
2008-11-20'Eurasia and Europe should Cooperate against America' interview with Alexandr Dugin
2008-11-21For U.S., bigger issues require Russian help
2008-11-25A Secure Europe in a Better World -- European Security Strategy
2008-12-27Opening Statement before the International Military Tribunal
2008-12-29Washington bears guilt for Gaza war crimes
2008-12-20Barak Urges U.S. to Focus on Iran Nuclear Threat
2008-10-26After the war
2008-11-07Russia's Relations with the World: The Aftermath of the Georgian Conflict, New Vision Conference Session 2
2008-11-06Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: East Asia and Pacific Overview
2008-11-11The Case for Restraint -- Niall Ferguson responds
2008-10-17Ukraine Vis-A-Vis NATO, Russia and the EU
2008-10-15A mad scramble over Afghanistan
2008-09-25Power, Politics & Scholarship
2007-07-12Republic or empire: A National Intelligence Estimate on the United States
2007-06-16Strategy on Iran Stirs New Debate at White House
2007-06-22Symposium: Strategies of Death
2007-06-13Nuclear Posture Review [Excerpts]
2007-06-12A cease-fire won't get Israel what it wants
2007-06-05Tony Blair’s farewell speech
2007-05-30Russia, U.S. spar on Kosovo, missile shield
2007-06-01Administration Rebukes Putin on His Policies
2007-06-01The Importance of Being Lucid
2007-05-27Commentary: Islamic deja vu
2007-05-10A Reporter At Large: In The Party Of God (Part II)
2007-05-11'A bullet at the heart of democracy'
2007-05-02Country Reports on Terrorism -- Chapter 2 -- Country Reports: Middle East and North Africa Overview
2007-05-03Sharia Crisis in Nigeria
2007-04-17Commission Adopts Resolutions On Combating Defamation Of Religions; Right To Development
2007-04-26Putin comments escalate U.S.-Russia missile shield row
2007-08-15President Delivers State of the Union Address
2007-08-15The Long Haul: Fighting and Funding America's Next Wars
2007-08-19On Israel, America and AIPAC
2007-08-08Germany Left Out of Global Policy Loop
2007-07-15“Two States Or One State” -- Debate by Uri Avnery & Ilan Pappe
2007-07-27To Check Syria, U.S. Explores Bond With Muslim Brothers
2006-11-19PREPARING FOR A NEW COLD WAR, Part 1 - A war the West can't win
2006-10-27Dick Cheney’s Song of America
2006-11-02World entering dangerous era of US impotence
2006-10-07When the devil dislikes the stink of brimstone
2006-10-04Poor Strategy, the Elections and Ukraine’s NATO Ambitions
2006-09-29An alternative way forward for the US
2006-10-10Russia Seeks Greater Economic Influence in Europe
2006-10-18The Clash of Cultures and American Hegemony
2006-10-25The new Great Game
2006-10-26Blaming the lobby
2006-09-03Is China a Military Threat? - Interview - David Shambaugh
2006-09-05Afghan Symbol for Change Becomes a Symbol of Failure
2006-08-24The United States of America will cease to exist on February 5th, 2006
2006-08-24Beyond the Bush agenda
2006-05-01Chaos in Iraq Sends Shock Waves Across Middle East and Elevates Iran's Influence
2006-05-01THE SO-CALLED EVIDENCE IS A FARCE: FORMER GREEN BERET SAYS BUSH IS LYING
2006-05-01Freedom and Justice in the Modern Middle East
2006-12-03The Way Out of War - A blueprint for leaving Iraq now
2006-12-11Urbanizing War/Militarizing Cities - The city as strategic site
2006-11-26Islam, Terror and the Second Nuclear Age
2006-12-26The Great Game on a razor's edge
2007-01-25Make War Your Friend, Part I
2007-01-29Whose Iran?
2007-01-23Crusading in the Arc of Instability - George Bush's Crusading Scorecard (2001-2007)
2007-02-20Transformational Diplomacy
2007-01-31AJC Briefing: Assessing the Growing Divisions Among Iran’s Conservatives: Public and Political Opposition to Ahmadinejad’s Policies
2007-03-27Our World: Condi's embrace of jihadist 'peace'
2007-04-14War? You must be joking
2007-03-13The Demography of Europe
2007-03-05Not in our name
2008-01-10Daughter of the West
2008-01-11After Iraq
2008-01-15Bush says high oil prices threaten US economy
2008-01-09Bush's Messiah Complex
2008-01-06Concern about 'sovereign wealth funds' spreads to Washington
2008-01-21Stabilization and Democratization: Renewing the Transatlantic Alliance
2008-01-30FOUAD AJAMI: THE POWERS OF PETROCRACY
2008-02-04Globalization: Stiglitz's Case
2008-02-01Iraq: The Way Out -- Transcript
2008-02-02A Statesman Without Borders
2007-12-22Gates: Gulf nations must confront Iran
2007-12-22Iran - Nuclear Chronology - 1957-1985
2007-12-29His Toughness Problem — and Ours
2007-12-29Globalization and Cultural Encounters
2007-12-28The Kurdish Policy Imperative
2007-12-12The real goal of Annapolis
2007-12-02The Smart Way to Beat Tyrants Like Chavez
2007-09-28The Mega-Lie Called the "War on Terror": A Masterpiece of Propaganda
2007-09-15Bush's tangled arms deal
2007-09-15The middle of nowhere
2007-09-21Why Capitalism Needs Terror: An Interview with Naomi Klein
2007-09-08Knowing the Enemy
2007-08-23Can't Stay the Course, Can't End the War, But We'll Call it Bipartisan
2007-10-16What is driving oil prices so high?
2007-10-20The Coming Civil War In Mexico