Posted by: zanshin, 2008-11-10 05:40

Story

The List: What McCain and Obama Didn’t Talk About

Joshua Keating, 2008-11-01 (Saturday), Foreign Policy
Some of the most pressing international issues the next president will face were barely discussed during the 2008 campaign. How will McCain or Obama handle them? We’ll just have to wait and see.


China’s Rise

The issue: Between the crackdown on protesters in Tibet, the Sichuan earthquake, and the buildup to the Summer Olympics, China dominated the world’s headlines for much of 2008. A veritable cottage industry emerged of pundits forecasting the United States’ decline and China’s emergence as an economic and military superpower. Yet the country that is home to 20 percent of the world’s population, that owns 20 percent of U.S. foreign debt, that has the world’s largest army, and that is America’s largest trading partner was strangely absent from this presidential election. Tellingly, during the only presidential debate focused on foreign policy, not one question on China was asked.

Why it will matter: Although China’s growth has slowed along with the rest of the global economy in recent months, the West is still enviously eyeing its $1.9 trillion in currency reserves. If Beijing agrees to Western requests and contributes to a global bailout fund, you can bet the Chinese will demand more sway in global financial bodies such as the International Monetary Fund. Military analysts are also watching China’s military modernization and fledgling space program with increasing alarm.

What was said: There’s fairly little daylight between Barack Obama’s and John McCain’s China positions. Obama promises to stop “borrowing [money] from China to send to Saudi Arabia,” and McCain has decried the “half-a-trillion dollars we owe China.” Obama spoke out against the Tibet crackdown, though he has pledged to “not demonize” China; McCain also favors engagement but stresses that “how a nation treats its citizens is a legitimate subject of international concern.”


Drug Violence in Mexico

The issue: If a U.S. ally deployed 40,000 troops into combat in its own territory and more than 4,000 deaths resulted from the fighting in less than two years, you would think it would raise a few eyebrows. If that country were right on the U.S. border, you would think it would be treated as a major crisis. Yet the violence that has wracked Mexico since President Felipe Calderón declared war on his country’s drug traffickers last year has been largely ignored, not just in the presidential race, but by most of the U.S. media. Meanwhile, gruesome events such as the discovery of 12 decapitated corpses in the Yucatán, the bombing of an Independence Day parade that killed seven in Michoacan, and the assassination of a popular young mayor in a Mexico City suburb are becoming increasingly common. The cartels have also successfully infiltrated national and local police units.

Why it matters: Sadly, the United States is funding both sides of this war. While Mexico receives U.S. taxpayer money to fight the war on drugs through a $400 million aid package, the cartels perpetrating the barbaric violence are being funded by Americans’ demand for cocaine and narcotics. It’s also estimated that 90 percent of the weapons used by the cartels are purchased at U.S. gun stores and gun shows, a consequence of lax gun-control laws north of the border. U.S. drug czar John Walters has also warned that the violence is starting to spill over into the southern United States.

What was said: Both McCain and Obama have praised Calderón’s crackdown. McCain visited Mexico in July and described the fighting as “a common struggle with a common enemy.” Obama has pledged to increase U.S. aid and focus on issues such as corruption. But if either candidate is open to rethinking the four-decade war on drugs that has done almost nothing to reduce U.S. demand or foreign supply, he hasn’t mentioned it during this campaign.


Instability in Somalia

The issue: Somalia is the world’s most failed state and potentially also one of the most dangerous. The country has been essentially without a central government since the early 1990s. Armed militias and extremist groups operate more or less openly. Neighboring Ethiopia sent troops into Somalia in 2006 to push the increasingly powerful Islamist coalition out of Mogadishu, the capital. Since then, however, the Islamists have regrouped and control wide swaths of territory. Somalia’s instability has also spilled over onto the high seas, with pirate gangs staging ever more brazen attacks on shipping through the Gulf of Aden. At least 60 ships have been attacked this year, including the headline-grabbing hijacking of a Ukrainian freighter carrying tanks and military equipment.

Why it matters: The Horn of Africa could very well be the next major front in the war on terror. U.S helicopters attacked a suspected al Qaeda safe house near the Kenyan border in January 2007. Leaders of the Shabaab militant group that controls much of southern Somalia have openly stated their support for Osama bin Laden. Piracy is also hurting international trade. Two major shipping firms are now sending ships around the southern tip of Africa rather than risk the more direct Suez Canal route that passes near Somalia, and NATO has dispatched warships to the region to fight the pirates.

What was said: Almost nothing. McCain advisor Randy Scheunemann has used al Qaeda’s gains after the U.S. withdrawal from Somalia as a cautionary tale for Iraq, an interesting choice of example because McCain strongly supported the withdrawal. Obama’s advisors say he wants to “recalibrate” the U.S. approach to Somalia, but it’s unknown what that might entail.


The Global Food Crisis

The issue: Caused by a perfect storm of economic factors including restrictive trade barriers, rising fuel prices, and increased demand from China and India, as well as poor harvests, food prices rose to record highs last spring and summer, threatening to push hundreds of millions around the world below the poverty line. Food riots broke out in Egypt, Indonesia, Haiti, and elsewhere. Food prices have decreased somewhat along with those of other commodities in recent months, but experts worry these decreases could actually exacerbate the problem as farmers cut back their harvests and rich countries focus on their own economic woes.

Why it matters: Along with China, the United States is one of the world’s primary food suppliers. It is the largest exporter of wheat, corn, and soybeans. So when the United States pumps billions into agricultural boondoggles like corn-based ethanol, it can cause significant fluctuations in global food prices. Somalia and Pakistan ought to be clear enough examples of why political instability—to which rising food prices are contributing—can make the world a more dangerous place.

What was said: The senator from Illinois is a major supporter of ethanol subsidies, a stance that has drawn repeated attacks from McCain. These attacks seem to be more motivated by McCain’s anti-pork principles than concern over food prices, however. Obama continues to support the subsidies but stresses that they are a “transitional technology” and that the United States should be “mindful” of the effect they have on food prices.


Illegal Immigration

The issue: Considering how important the issue of immigration was in the Republican primary—a backlash on the right that sometimes veered into outright xenophobia very nearly cost McCain the nomination—its disappearance during the general election has been remarkable. Although immigration into the United States has slowed in recent years, a consequence of the slumping U.S. economy, the population of undocumented immigrants remains at an all-time high of nearly 12 million. Living in constant fear of deportation, illegal immigrants are prone to mistreatment by employers and lack access to basic social services. The United States’ porous southern border has also led to an increase in violent crime and drug trafficking on both sides of the Rio Grande.

Why it matters: You don’t have to be Lou Dobbs to see a problem with the United States not enforcing the laws on its own books. With little action to tackle the problem on the federal level, state and local law enforcement agencies are taking the matter into their own hands, resulting in the diversion of resources and inconsistent enforcement. There’s bipartisan support for comprehensive reform that would combine tougher border enforcement with a pathway to citizenship for illegal immigrants who already live in the United States, but some skill will be required for the next president to cut through the extremist demagoguery and convince skeptical voters.

What was said: McCain’s immigration stance has to be counted as the biggest “flip-flop” of his presidential run. The maverick Republican who joined with Democrats to support comprehensive immigration reform has shifted to a “secure the borders first” policy. Obama continues to support reform but has toughened his tone to emphasize that immigrants must “get right with the law.” Given that the moderate stance of both candidates is out of touch with a significant portion of the electorate, they seem to have both decided to downplay the issue. It hasn’t come up in any of their debates.

~~

Joshua Keating is an editorial assistant at FP.

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2007-04-15Trade and American National Security: The Case Of China's WTO Accession
2007-04-15Race in Scandinavia
2007-04-05"Promoting Democracy: A Progressive Foreign Policy Agenda".
2007-03-31The Second Lebanon War -- It probably won't be the last
2007-04-02Reaction From Around the World
2007-03-14Sweden: Restrictive Immigration Policy and Multiculturalism
2007-03-21Chris Hedges: The Christian Right’s War on America
2007-03-24Is the American Empire on the Brink of Collapse?
2007-03-30The Global Information Technology Report -- Executive Summary
2006-12-18“Bush’s Dream”
2006-12-11Urbanizing War/Militarizing Cities - The city as strategic site
2006-12-03The Way Out of War - A blueprint for leaving Iraq now
2007-01-23Crusading in the Arc of Instability - George Bush's Crusading Scorecard (2001-2007)
2007-02-20Misplaying North Korea and Losing Friends and Influence in Northeast Asia
2007-03-01ARAB COUNTRIES - GENERAL ANALYSIS
2007-03-04The Leadership of George W. Bush: Con & Pro
2007-02-28Speech at the 43rd Munich Conference on Security Policy
2007-03-01President Bush Discusses Progress in Afghanistan, Global War on Terror
2008-08-06Nothing Succeeds Like Success
2008-08-30A Choice of War Criminals
2008-09-02The Geopolitics of Dope
2008-08-30Transcript: Al Gore's speech at Invesco Field
2008-09-13Mexico: On the Road to a Failed State?
2008-09-12The Return of U. S. Death Squads
2008-09-13Western Migration to Eastern and Central Europe
2008-09-15The Financial Crisis: An Interview with George Soros
2008-09-26Has the U.S. Invasion of Pakistan Begun?
2008-09-26Big world, big future, big NATO
2008-10-02U.S. Not Winning War on Terror -- Special Report
2008-09-29The Roaring Nineties
2008-10-11What Went Wrong? Western Impact and Middle Eastern Response
2008-10-09U.S. Study Is Said to Warn of Crisis in Afghanistan
2008-06-27The Wrong War -- Why We Lost in Vietnam -- Chapter One
2008-06-27President Delivers "State of the Union"
2008-06-24The Iran Trap
2008-06-13G8 set to warn oil, food price shock endangers world economy
2008-06-06Stumbling toward Eurabia
2008-06-11Wrestling With History -- Sometimes you have to fight the war you have, not the war you wish you had
2008-07-09Shackled Warrior
2008-07-16Obama stands by timetable for Iraq
2008-07-16Nations with vast oil wealth gaining clout
2008-07-30OBAMA, THE DEMOCRATIC ‘WAR PRESIDENT’
2008-07-30Somalia: Crusade Number Four
2008-07-27How Obama Became Acting President
2008-07-31Foreign Minister Jonas Gahr Støre delivers speech at Harvard University
2008-08-04How The United States Reversed Its Policy On Bombing Civilians
2008-05-19Interview with Joseph Stiglitz
2008-06-01Why NATO Troops Can't Deliver Peace in Afghanistan
2008-05-05Global Neo-Liberalism, the Deformation of Education and Resistance
2008-05-15Yankees Head Home
2008-05-14NATO at a Crossroads
2008-05-19The Failure of Inflation Targeting
2008-04-10Eretz Israel HaShlema / Greater Israel
2008-04-10Imperial Israel: The Nile-to-Euphrates Calumny
2008-03-22Muslims, Democracy, and the American Experience
2008-03-15Russia throws a wrench in NATO's works
2008-03-24Globalization And The Development Of Underdevelopment Of The Third World
2007-10-15The Triborder Sea Area: Maritime Southeast Asia's Ungoverned Space
2007-10-17Map: The world's water hotspots
2007-11-20Whose War?
2007-11-20PJB: Bush’s Failure in Pakistan – And the World
2007-11-21Wars to Watch Out For
2007-11-26Norwegian Jihad -- Transcript
2007-11-10The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones
2007-11-09HOW STUPID DO THEY THINK WE ARE?
2007-09-11Lessons from the Bloc
2007-09-15The middle of nowhere
2007-09-17Why We're Losing the War on Terror
2007-09-06Excerpts from an interview with Lee Kuan Yew
2007-09-07Understanding the U.S.-Israel Alliance: An Israeli Response to the Walt-Mearsheimer Claim
2008-01-08Citi Private Bank to provide its clients Eurasia Group’s “Global Political Risk Index” for economic and political risk analysis
2008-01-08High stakes in Kenya crisis for U.S. war on terror
2008-01-08The Manama Dialogue: Gulf security and Turkey
2008-01-09Westminster Notes (The Afghanistan Problems)
2008-01-09Bush's Messiah Complex
2008-01-09Will Justice Go After Cheney?
2007-12-27Into Africa
2007-12-28How Pakistan Works
2007-12-29His Toughness Problem — and Ours
2007-12-20Press Conference by the President
2007-12-02Follow the drugs: US shown the way
2008-02-21The Spread of Nuclear Weapons: More May Better
2008-02-24Strategy and the Limitation of War
2008-02-25Thicker than Water? Kin, Religion, and Conflict in the Balkans
2008-03-03Us and Them -- The Enduring Power of Ethnic Nationalism
2008-03-04The Three Trillion Dollar War: Nobel Laureate Joseph Stiglitz and Harvard Economist Linda Bilmes on the True Cost of the US Invasion and Occupation of Iraq
2008-03-06"Victory Would be a Fata Morgana"
2008-02-04Chomsky on World Ownership
2008-02-04Going bankrupt: The US's greatest threat